[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 08 Nov 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 9 10:32:00 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 88/32 86/29
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 08 November. Two low
C-class and several B-class flares were observed- the largest
being a C5.7 that came from region 2781 (currently located at
S23E03 at 22:45 UT). This flare peaked at 0518 UT. No Earthward
directed CMEs were observed in the coronagraph images. During
UT day 08 November, the solar wind speed varied from around 430
km/s to 490 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied between 1 nT and
5 nT, IMF Bz varied in the range +4/-3 nT and the solar wind
particle density in the range of 5 to 9 ppcc. The effect of a
coronal hole seems to have been continuing for longer than expected.
It may still keep the solar wind parameters enhanced during the
first half of UT day 09 November and then gradually decline to
normal values. Solar activity is expected to be low with a small
chance of isolated M-class activity for the next three UT days
(09 to 11 November).
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11212110
Darwin 3 11212110
Townsville 5 21213110
Learmonth 6 22213210
Alice Springs 4 11212210
Gingin 4 21212210
Canberra 2 11202100
Hobart 3 12202100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 11202000
Casey 17 54333222
Mawson 8 32322221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1011 0122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Nov 4 Quiet
10 Nov 4 Quiet
11 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
and quiet to unsettled conditions in the Antarctic regions were
observed on UT day 08 November with one active and one minor
storm periods also recorded in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be quiet for the next three UT days
(09 to 11 November) with a small possibility of isolated unsettled
periods on 09 November due to waning coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values on UT
day 08 November with minor depressions in some low-latitude locations
during local night times. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values for the next three UT days (09 to 11 November).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Nov -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -13
Nov 3
Dec 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
10 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
11 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted
monthly values on UT day 08 November with minor depressions in
some northern locations during local night times. MUFs in the
Australian regions are expected to be near predicted monthly
values for the next three UT days (09 to 11 November).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 484 km/sec Density: 8.5 p/cc Temp: 256000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list