[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 06 Nov 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 7 10:31:37 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Nov             08 Nov             09 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    94/40              94/40              94/40

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 06 November. Five 
low C-class and several B-class flares were observed. No Earthward 
directed CMEs were observed in the coronagraph images. During 
UT day 06 November, the solar wind speed increased from 370 km/s 
to around 500 km/s by 0500 UT and is currently at 440 km/s, the 
total IMF (Bt) varied between 3 nT and 10 nT, IMF Bz varied in 
the range +6/-6 nT and the solar wind particle density in the 
range of 8 to 14 ppcc. The effect of a coronal hole may keep 
the solar wind parameters enhanced on UT day 07 November and 
then gradually decline to normal values. Solar activity is expected 
to be low with a low chance of M flares for the next three UT 
days (07 to 09 November).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12222221
      Darwin               6   22222221
      Townsville           7   22223221
      Learmonth            8   22222322
      Alice Springs        6   12222221
      Gingin               6   12222222
      Canberra             6   12222221
      Hobart               6   12222221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     6   12132310
      Casey               28   56532223
      Mawson              16   33333334

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   0001 1012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Nov     8    Mostly quiet to unsettled with small possibility 
                of isolated active periods
08 Nov     6    Mostly quiet with the possibility of isolated 
                unsettled periods
09 Nov     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 06 
November with one active and 3 minor storm periods also recorded 
in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be quiet to unsettled with a small chance of isolated active 
periods on 07 November due to coronal hole effects. Mostly quiet 
geomagnetic conditions may be expected for UT days 08 and 09 
November with a small possibility of isolated unsettled conditions 
on 08 November.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values on UT 
day 06 November with minor depressions in some low-latitude locations 
during local night times. MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values for the next three UT days (07 to 09 November) 
with the possibility of some periods of minor to mild depressions 
on 07 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Nov     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -13
Nov      3
Dec      5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Nov    -5    Near predicted monthly values
08 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values
09 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 5 
November and is current for 4-7 Nov. MUFs in the Australian region 
were mostly near predicted monthly values on UT day 06 November 
with minor depressions in some northern locations during local 
night times. MUFs in the Australian regions are expected to be 
near predicted monthly values for the next three UT days (07 
to 09 November) with the possibility of some periods of minor 
to mild depressions on 07 November.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 312 km/sec  Density:    6.8 p/cc  Temp:    19600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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