[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 04 Nov 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 5 10:31:39 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 04 November. Region
2781 (S23E55) produced five C flares, the largest a C1.8 at 1711
UT. Region 2780 (N20E28) has redeveloped spots and is a Bxo/beta
group. Region 2781 has further developed and is now a Dko/beta
group. A region appears to be developing near S20W17. No CMEs
observed in coronagraph images. The solar wind speed was mostly
below 350 km/s. The maximum total IMF was 5 nT with a north-south
IMF (Bz) range of -3/+3 nT. Solar activity is expected to be
low to moderate with a low chance of M flares from AR 2781. There
are no returning regions expected. The solar wind speed is expected
to be near nominal levels on 05 November. There is likely to
be a mild enhancement in solar wind parameters on 06 and 07 November
due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Nov : A K
Australian Region 0 10000001
Darwin 1 10000101
Townsville 1 11000110
Learmonth 1 10001101
Alice Springs 0 10000001
Gingin 0 00000001
Canberra 0 00100010
Hobart 1 01110011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 23321011
Mawson 5 41122000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Nov 7 Quiet
06 Nov 9 Quiet to Unsettled. Chance of isolated active
periods.
07 Nov 11 Mostly unsettled. Chance of isolated active periods.
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 04 November. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. Global conditions are
expected to be mostly quiet on 05 November. Unsettled periods
with a chance of isolated active periods possible on 06 to 07
November due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
during the next three UT days, 05-07 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Nov 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhancements to 30% at Darwin 05-15 UT, depressions
to 25% at Townsville 04-08 UT. Near predicted
monthly values otherwise.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -13
Nov 3
Dec 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values
06 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values
07 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted
monthly values on UT day 04 November. Night spread F observed
at Hobart 11-17 UT. MUFs are likely to be near predicted values
with some enhancements due to increased solar flux on 05-06 November.
Possible mild depressions on 07 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 93000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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