[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 31 Oct 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 1 10:31:34 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 75/13 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 31 October. There
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disk, AR2778(S18W78)
and AR2779(S15W69). Both regions decayed and remained relatively
quiet. No earthbound CMEs were observed in the available imagery.
Solar activity is expected to remain very low for the next three
UT days, 01- 03 November with possible C-class flares. On UT
day 31 October, the solar wind speed decreased further, currently
around 380 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 2-6 nT and
the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) range was +/-5 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to be near its nominal levels
for the next three UT days, 01-03 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 11232300
Cocos Island 4 11122300
Darwin 7 21232301
Townsville 7 21232301
Learmonth 7 12232301
Alice Springs 6 11232300
Gingin 4 11122300
Canberra 4 11222200
Hobart 7 11233300
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Oct :
Macquarie Island 10 11244300
Casey 16 45332311
Mawson 10 23233321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2202 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Nov 5 Quiet
02 Nov 5 Quiet
03 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 31 October, quiet to unsettled geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Australian region. Quiet to minor
storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 01-03 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
during the next three UT days, 01-03 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Oct -19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -2
Oct -13
Nov -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values
02 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values
03 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 31 October, MUFs in the Australian region
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E observed
at several sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values during UT days 01-03
November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 426 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 124000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list