[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 May 20 issued 2338 UT on 30 May 2020

Sun May 31 09:38:23 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 31 MAY - 02 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 May:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 May             01 Jun             02 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 30 May. No Earthward 
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. 
Low levels of solar activity, with a chance of isolated M-class 
flares, are expected for the next three UT days, 31 May to 02 
June. The visible disc is spotless. During UT day 30 May, the 
solar wind became moderately enhanced. The solar wind speed gradually 
increased, reaching a maximum 431 km/s at 30/1703 UT and currently 
around 390 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) increased to a maximum of 
14 nT at 30/0532 UT and is currently around 6 nT. The north-south 
IMF component (Bz) reached a minimum of -12.9 nT at 30/0525 UT 
and had an extended southward period between 30/0410 UT and 30/0930 
UT. Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be moderately 
enhanced on UT days 31 May and 01 June due to minor coronal hole 
effects, returning to background conditions by 02 June.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 30 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22332222
      Cocos Island         7   12222132
      Darwin              10   22333222
      Townsville          12   23333223
      Learmonth           12   22333233
      Alice Springs        8   12332222
      Gingin               9   22222233
      Canberra             8   22232222
      Hobart               9   13332222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 May :
      Macquarie Island    11   11353111
      Casey               10   23232133
      Mawson              48   33443277

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1000 1112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jun     6    Quiet to Unsettled
02 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
Quiet to Unsettled on UT day 30 May. The Antarctic region observed 
mainly Quiet to Active conditions with some isolated storm periods. 
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled 
levels on UT days 31 May to 01 June due to minor coronal hole 
effects, returning to Quiet levels on UT day 02 June.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values with Mild to 
Moderate enhancements on UT day 30 May. MUFs are expected to 
stay mostly at normal levels for the next three UT days, 31 May 
to 02 June.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
30 May     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -13
Jun      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
01 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values
02 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 30 
May and is current for 30 May to 1 Jun. MUFs were mostly near 
predicted values with Mild to Moderate enhancements in the Australian 
region on UT day 30 May. Sporadic E was observed over some sites. 
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to stay mostly at 
normal levels for the next three UT days, 31 May to 02 June.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 May
Speed: 294 km/sec  Density:    6.7 p/cc  Temp:    19800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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