[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 28 May 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 29 09:31:29 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 May 30 May 31 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 28 May. Two low
B-class flares were observed. A CME from the west limb was also
observed in LASCO C2 and C3 images. The CME seems to be a farside
event. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph images. Very low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three UT days, 29 to 31 May. The visible disc is
spotless. No returning regions expected. During UT day 28 May,
the solar wind speed varied in the range 280 to 310 km/s, the
total IMF (Bt) between 2 and 5 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) between -4 and +4 nT. The solar wind particle density varied
mostly in the range 3 to 10 ppcc through this day. Solar wind
parameters are expected to show small enhancements on UT days
29 and 30 May due to possible minor coronal hole effects and
then return to normal values on 31 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 May : A K
Australian Region 0 00101000
Cocos Island 0 00000000
Darwin 0 10001000
Townsville 1 11101001
Learmonth 1 00101100
Alice Springs 0 00100000
Gingin 0 00101000
Canberra 0 00001000
Hobart 1 00111100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00011000
Casey 2 02201100
Mawson 2 02110200
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 3 1001 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 May 7 Quiet to Unsettled
30 May 7 Quiet to Unsettled
31 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic
regions were quiet on UT day 28 May. Global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on UT days 29
and 30 May and then return to quiet levels on 31 May. The slight
rises in the geomagnetic activity on 29 and 30 May are expected
due to possible minor coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal Normal Normal
30 May Normal Normal Normal
31 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values with mild to
moderate enhancements on UT day 28 May. MUFs are expected to
stay mostly at normal levels for the next three UT days, 29 to
31 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 May -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -13
Jun -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 May -4 Near predicted monthly values
30 May -4 Near predicted monthly values
31 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values with mild to
moderate enhancements in the Australian region on UT day 28 May.
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to stay mostly at
normal levels for the next three UT days, 29 to 31 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 310 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 12900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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