[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 May 20 issued 2334 UT on 11 May 2020

Tue May 12 09:34:28 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 12 MAY - 14 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May:  66/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 May             13 May             14 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 11 May. The visible 
disc was spotless. No regions are expected to return. Very Low 
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 
12-14 May. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph images. On UT day 11 May, the solar wind speed was 
near its background values, varying in the range 310-360 km/s. 
The total IMF (Bt) and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied 
in the ranges 1-6 nT and -5/+2 nT, respectively. Nominal solar 
wind conditions are expected for the next two UT days, 12-13 
May, with a possibility of a moderate enhancement on UT day 14 
May due to coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11220001
      Cocos Island         2   11120000
      Darwin               3   12220001
      Townsville           3   12220001
      Learmonth            2   11220001
      Alice Springs        2   02220000
      Gingin               2   11210001
      Canberra             2   11220000
      Hobart               2   11220000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 May :
      Macquarie Island     1   00120000
      Casey                4   22221001
      Mawson              14   44232114

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   0001 1113     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 May     5    Quiet
13 May     5    Quiet
14 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled, with chance of an isolated 
                Active period

COMMENT: On UT day 11 May, the geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian region were at Quiet levels. The Antarctic region 
observed mainly Quiet levels, with Mawson station observed Quiet 
to Active levels. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to stay at mainly Quiet levels for the next two UT days, 12-13 
May, then increasing to Quiet to Unsettled levels, with a chance 
of an isolated Active period, on UT day 14 May due to coronal 
hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation are expected for the next 
three UT days (12-14 May).

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 May     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -13
Jun      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
13 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
14 May     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values to moderately 
enhanced levels in the Australian region during UT day 11 May. 
Occurrences of sporadic E were observed over some Australian 
stations. Normal MUFs are expected for the next three UT days 
(12-14 May) in the Australian region.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 May
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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