[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 May 20 issued 2340 UT on 06 May 2020

Thu May 7 09:40:51 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 May             08 May             09 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 06 May. The visible 
disc was spotless. No regions are expected to return. Very low 
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 
07-09 May. Through UT day 06 May, the solar wind speed stayed 
mostly between 290 km/s and 320 km/s with some sudden rise up 
to around 460 km/s between 1500 UT and 1800 UT, the total IMF 
(Bt) gradually decreased from 7 nT to 4 nT, the north-south IMF 
component (Bz) varied in the range +3 nT to -6 nT and the solar 
wind particle density varied from 1 ppcc to 11 ppcc. No Earthward 
directed CMEs were observed in the available images on 06 May. 
Nominal solar wind conditions are expected 07-09 May with slight 
possibility of mild rise late on 09 May due possible coronal 
hole effect.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   22001000
      Cocos Island         1   22000000
      Darwin               4   22003001
      Townsville           2   22001001
      Learmonth            2   22101010
      Alice Springs        2   21002000
      Gingin               2   21001010
      Canberra             1   21001000
      Hobart               2   21002000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 May :
      Macquarie Island     1   11002000
      Casey                6   33211110
      Mawson              19   55211143

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   2211 2232     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 May     5    Quiet
08 May     5    Quiet
09 May     7    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible

COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed on 
UT day 06 May. Quiet conditions are expected on UT days 07-09 
May with a small possibility of some unsettled periods late on 
09 May due possible coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values to significantly 
enhanced. Occurrences of sporadic E and spread-F were observed. 
Normal MUFs are expected for the next three UT days (07 to 09 
May)

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
06 May     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -13
Jun      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 May     4    Near predicted monthly values
08 May     4    Near predicted monthly values
09 May     2    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values to significantly 
enhanced in the Australian region. Occurrences of sporadic E 
and spread-F were observed. Normal MUFs are expected for the 
next three UT days (07 to 09 May) in the Australian region.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.2E+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 322 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:    25100 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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