[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 March 20 issued 2331 UT on 17 Mar 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 18 10:31:28 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 17 March. No
earth-directed CMEs have been observed. During this day, the
solar wind speed first increased from 340 km/s to 440 km/s by
0900 UT and then stayed between 390 and 440 km/s; the total interplanetary
magnetic field (Bt) stayed between 6 nT and 9 nT until 0900 UT
and then between 1 nT and 5 nT, and the north south component
of interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) varied initially in the
range of +1 nT and +5 nT by 0530 UT, then suddenly changed to
-5 nT, stayed predominantly negative until 0840 UT and then varied
in the range +2/-3 nT. During this day, the solar wind particle
density varied in the range 4 to 8 ppcc. Solar wind parameters
may stay slightly enhanced through UT days 18 and 19 March due
to weak coronal hole effects. Solar activity is expected to stay
very low for the next three UT day (18 to 20 March).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 11222201
Cocos Island 3 11111201
Darwin 3 11211201
Townsville 5 11222211
Learmonth 5 21222202
Alice Springs 3 01122201
Gingin 5 11222202
Canberra 1 00111100
Hobart 5 11222211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Mar :
Macquarie Island 4 00232210
Casey 11 33432202
Mawson 18 22343335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 1001 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Mar 7 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Mar 7 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 17 March. Geomagnetic conditions
at high latitudes were quiet to active during this period. Mostly
quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions may be expected for
the next two UT days (18 to 19 March). Mostly quiet geomagnetic
conditions may be expected on UT day 20 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values for UT day 17 March with periods of mild to significant
enhancements. Some periods of minor depressions were also recorded
at a low-latitude station. Nearly similar levels of ionospheric
support may be expected for the next three UT days (18 to 20
March).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Mar 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -8
Mar -15
Apr -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Mar 4 Near predicted monthly values
19 Mar 4 Near predicted monthly values
20 Mar 6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values across the Australian region for UT day 17 March
with periods of mild to significant enhancements. Some periods
of minor depressions were also recorded at one station. Nearly
similar levels of ionospheric support may be expected for the
next three UT days (18 to 20 March) in the region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Mar
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 10.8 p/cc Temp: 35600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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