[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 March 20 issued 2347 UT on 15 Mar 2020

Mon Mar 16 10:47:55 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Mar             17 Mar             18 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 15 March. There a currently 
no numbered regions on the visible disc and no Earth directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The 
solar wind speed (Vsw) has remained at ambient levels, ranging 
between 344km/s to 387km/s over the UT day and is currently 361km/s 
at the time of this report. The north-south component of the 
IMF (Bz) has ranged between +/-5nT with no sustained southward 
excursions. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at nominal 
levels for the next 2 days with a possible increase late in the 
UT day 18Mar due to an anticipated high speed solar wind stream 
from a equatorial located negative polarity coronal hole that 
crossed the central meridian today. Very low levels of solar 
activity are expected for the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11021111
      Cocos Island         2   11011110
      Darwin               3   11011112
      Townsville           3   11121111
      Learmonth            3   11021112
      Alice Springs        3   01021112
      Gingin               2   01011112
      Canberra             0   00010000
      Hobart               3   01121112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     1   00021001
      Casey                7   23222122
      Mawson               9   22111234

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 1011     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Mar     5    Quiet
17 Mar     5    Quiet
18 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed for the Australian region 
on 15Mar. Antarctic sites experienced conditions ranging from 
Quiet to Active. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly 
at Quiet levels for the next three days with possible Unsettled 
to Active periods for High latitudes.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
15 Mar    -0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -8
Mar      -15
Apr      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values
17 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values across the Australian region for 15Mar. Enhanced 
HF conditions observed for Equatorial regions as well as Northern 
and Southern Aus during local day. Similar levels of ionospheric 
support are expected for the next three days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 389 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    54600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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