[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 March 20 issued 2331 UT on 11 Mar 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 12 10:31:30 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 11 March. Currently
there is one numbered region on the visible disc, AR 2758, located
near the solar meridian (now at S35W08). This region produced
a weak B-class flare, B2.3 at 11/0556 UT, however no CME was
triggered by this event. Very low levels of solar activity are
expected for the next three UT days, 12-14 March. On UT day 11
March, the solar wind speed was near its nominal level, in the
range 290-320 km. The solar wind speed is currently near 310
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 1 nT and 4 nT. The north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range -2/+2 nT. The outlook
for the next three days (12-14 March) is for the solar wind speed
to remain near its nominal level. Some minor enhancement in solar
wind speed may occur during this period due to small patchy coronal
holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 11011101
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 1 11001001
Townsville 2 11111101
Learmonth 2 21011001
Alice Springs 1 01011101
Gingin 2 11011101
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 3 11122101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 00011000
Casey 4 23211100
Mawson 8 51112200
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 2011 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Mar 7 Quiet
13 Mar 7 Quiet
14 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 11 March was quiet for the
Australian and Antarctic regions. The geomagnetic activity is
expected to be mostly at quiet levels for the next three UT days,
12-14 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 12-14 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Mar 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -8
Mar -15
Apr -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
13 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
14 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values to moderately enhanced ones for the Australian
and equatorial region on 11 March. Mild to moderate depressions
were over the Niue islands. Similar levels of ionospheric support
are expected for the next three UT days, 12-14 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 327 km/sec Density: 7.8 p/cc Temp: 16000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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