[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 March 20 issued 2331 UT on 06 Mar 2020

Sat Mar 7 10:31:33 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Mar             08 Mar             09 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 06 March. There 
are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. Very low levels 
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 07-09 
March. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 06 March, the solar wind speed 
varied in the range 310-390 km, currently near 340 Km/s. The 
increase in the solar wind speed from its background levels to 
390 km/s was observed approximately from 0700 to 1430 UT, most 
probably, due to weak coronal hole effects. The total IMF (Bt) 
ranged from 4 nT to 9 nT and the north-south component of the 
IMF (Bz) varied in the range -6/+7 nT and was predominantly positive. 
The solar wind speed may reach moderately enhanced levels on 
07 March due to a possible connection with the high speed stream 
from an extension of the south polar coronal hole and glancing 
blow of a weak CME.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   20222200
      Cocos Island         3   10222100
      Darwin               5   20222211
      Townsville           6   21223211
      Learmonth            4   20222200
      Alice Springs        4   20222200
      Gingin               4   21222200
      Canberra             4   1022220-
      Hobart               4   11222200    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     3   00032200
      Casey               10   33422211
      Mawson               5   21223200

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1111 1101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Mar     9    Quiet to Unsettled
08 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 06 March was mostly quiet for 
the Australian and Antarctic regions. The Antarctic sites also 
observed unsettled to active levels. Global geomagnetic activity 
may increase to unsettled levels, with a chance of isolated active 
periods for 07 March if the solar wind becomes enhanced due to 
coronal hole effects and weak CME passage.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 07-09 March. Mild degradation may 
happen on 07 March due to possible increase in geomagnetic activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
06 Mar    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -8
Mar      -15
Apr      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values
08 Mar    -5    Near predicted monthly values
09 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted 
monthly values to mildly enhanced ones for the Australian and 
equatorial region on 06 March. Mild MUFs depressions were also 
observed in Niue Island region during local day. Sporadic-E occurrences 
were seen over some sites. Similar levels of ionospheric support 
are expected for the next three UT days, 07-09 March. Mild MUFs 
depressions are possible for 08 March.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 344 km/sec  Density:   12.3 p/cc  Temp:    24100 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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