[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 March 20 issued 2331 UT on 02 Mar 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 3 10:31:26 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 02 March. There
are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. Very Low levels
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 03-05
March. A weak narrow CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery around
02/0824 UT, unlikely to have an earth directed component. No
other Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 02 March, the solar wind speed remained slightly
enhanced, varied between 400-480 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged
between 2-6 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz)
between +/-3 n. The solar wind speed is expected to remain slightly
enhanced for the next three days, 03-05 March due to weak coronal
holes effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 11012102
Cocos Island 1 10011101
Darwin 2 11012101
Townsville 3 11112102
Learmonth 3 10012202
Alice Springs 2 10012101
Gingin 3 11012201
Canberra 2 10012102
Hobart 4 11112112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Mar :
Macquarie Island 3 10023101
Casey 8 33223102
Mawson 8 33113211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 3012 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 02 March was Quiet for the
Australian region. The Antarctic region observed Quiet to Unsettled
conditions. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly
at Quiet levels for the next three days, 03-05 March and a times
may reach Unsettled levels due to weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
04 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
05 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 03-05 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Mar -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -8
Mar -15
Apr -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Mar -4 Near predicted monthly values
04 Mar -4 Near predicted monthly values
05 Mar -4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values to slightly enhanced for the Australian region
on 02 March. Minor MUFs depressions observed at Niue Island region
local day. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over some sites.
Similar levels of ionospheric support is expected for the next
three UT days, 03-05 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 447 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 94200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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