[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 February 20 issued 2331 UT on 29 Feb 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 1 10:31:30 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day, 29 February.
There are currently no active regions on the visible disc. Through
UT day 29 February, the solar wind speed ranged between 450 and
560 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied between 2 nT and 9 nT and
the north-south component of IMF (Bz) showed fluctuations in
the range +6/-7 nT. Solar wind parameters may stay enhanced during
UT days 1 to 2 March due to the effects of patchy coronal holes.
Very low levels of solar activity are forecast for the next three
UT days, 01 to 03 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 21122323
Cocos Island 8 21122323
Darwin 8 22123322
Townsville 9 21132323
Learmonth 9 21123323
Alice Springs 8 21122323
Gingin 10 22122423
Canberra 8 21132322
Hobart 10 22232412
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Feb :
Macquarie Island 11 21333411
Casey 21 54432333
Mawson 32 33333347
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1101 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Mar 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
02 Mar 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
03 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions in Australian
region and quite to active conditions at high southern hemisphere
latitudes were observed on UT day, 29 February. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with the
possibility of isolated active periods for the next two UT days,
01 to 02 March and then decline to quiet to unsettled levels
through UT day, 03 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 29 February
were mostly near predicted monthly values with some periods of
minor to moderate enhancements. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values for the next three UT days, 01
to 03 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Feb 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -20
Feb -16
Mar -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
02 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
03 Mar 4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
regions for UT day 29 February were mostly near predicted monthly
values with some periods of minor to moderate enhancements. MUFs
in this region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values for the next three UT days, 01 to 03 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 39400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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