[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 June 20 issued 2331 UT on 28 Jun 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 29 09:31:22 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JUNE 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 28 June. There
are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar disc.
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days,
29 June to 01 July. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph images. During UT day 28 June, the
solar wind speed was decreasing from 380 km/s to 320 km/s, currently
near 330 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 3 and 5 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied in the range +2/-4
nT. During the next three UT days, 29 June to 01 July, the solar
wind speed is expected to vary between its background levels
and moderately enhanced values; mild to moderate enhancements
are possible due to minor coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 11000000
Cocos Island 0 01000000
Darwin 0 11000000
Townsville 1 11010001
Learmonth 0 01000001
Alice Springs 0 01000000
Gingin 1 11000011
Canberra 0 01010000
Hobart 1 11010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 2 21110011
Mawson 6 32121013
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 3122 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jun 7 Quiet
30 Jun 7 Quiet
01 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 28 June, geomagnetic conditions were quiet
in the Australian region. Mostly quiet conditions with isolated
unsettled periods were observed in the Antarctic region. Global
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet for the next
three UT days, 29 June to 01 July, with a chance of isolated
unsettled periods due to week coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three UT days, 29 June to 01 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jun 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 1
Jun -12
Jul -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near monthly predicted to moderately enhanced
levels on UT day 28 June. The enhancements were observed mostly
during local night. Sporadic E and spread F were observed at
times over some Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian region
are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced
levels for the next three UT days, 29 June to 01 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 61400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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