[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 June 20 issued 2337 UT on 07 Jun 2020

Mon Jun 8 09:37:17 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JUNE 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 08 JUNE - 10 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jun:  73/9

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Jun             09 Jun             10 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 07 June. There 
is currently one active region with sunspots on the visible disc, 
AR 2765(S23E19) produced few B class flares with the largest 
being a B6.4 flare at 07/2146UT. Noted an unstable filament around 
AR 2765, monitored as it approaches centre disk. No Earthward 
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images 
up to 07/2225UT. Very low levels of solar activity with a chance 
of isolated C-class flares are expected for the next three UT 
days, 08-10 June. The solar wind speed remained near its nominal 
level until 07/1400 UT after which it increased, currently around 
480 Km/s. At the same time the IMF conditions observed a minor 
perturbation, the total IMF (Bt) reached 13 nT ad the north-south 
IMF component (Bz) -10 nT, respectively due to the influence 
of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole. Solar 
wind speeds are expected to remain enhanced over the next 24-36 
hours due to continued coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jun: Mostly Quiet

Estimated Indices 07 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   01110222
      Cocos Island         3   01110221
      Darwin               4   11110222
      Townsville           5   12111231
      Learmonth            3   01110222
      Alice Springs        3   01010222
      Gingin               2   00010122
      Canberra             2   01000121
      Hobart               3   11111121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     1   00010011
      Casey                5   12211122
      Mawson              11   33112243

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1101 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Jun    12    Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of an isolated 
                active period.
09 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
10 Jun     7    Mostly Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
mostly quiet on UT day 07 June. The Antarctic region observed 
isolated unsettled to active periods. Global geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled for UT days 08-10 
June with a chance of an isolated active period today, 08 June 
due to coronal effects..

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three UT days, 08-10 June.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 Jun     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      1
Jun      -12
Jul      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Jun     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Jun     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Jun     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: In the Australian region on UT day 07 June, MUFs were 
near predicted monthly values to enhanced. Sporadic E was observed 
over some sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to 
be mostly near predicted monthly values for the next three UT 
days, 08-10 June.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jun
Speed: 319 km/sec  Density:    9.6 p/cc  Temp:    20500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Bureau of Meteorology
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