[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 June 20 issued 2331 UT on 04 Jun 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 5 09:31:29 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JUNE 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 04 June. There
are two numbered active regions on the visible disc, AR 2764
and AR 2765. Currently AR 2764 has no sunspots. No Earthward
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images.
Very low levels of solar activity with a little chance of isolated
C-class flares are expected for the next three UT days, 05-07
June. During UT day 04 June, the solar wind speed varied in the
range 310-350 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 0 nT and
5 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied mostly in
the range -5/+3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to stay
mostly near its background level during UT days 05-07 June, with
possible moderate enhancements.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 10100121
Cocos Island 1 00100110
Darwin 2 11110111
Townsville 2 00210111
Learmonth 2 10100221
Alice Springs 2 10100121
Gingin 1 00000121
Canberra 0 00100010
Hobart 2 10100121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 5 22111131
Mawson 12 21220045
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1100 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jun 7 Quiet
06 Jun 7 Quiet
07 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 04 June. The Antarctic region observed mostly
quiet levels, with one isolated quiet to minor storm period.
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet with
a chance of isolated unsettled periods for UT days 05-07 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: During UT day 04 June, MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values with mild enhancements in the Southern Hemisphere
and varied mostly between the predicted monthly values and moderately
depressed levels in the Northern Hemisphere. For the next three
UT days, 05-07 June, similar HF propagation conditions are expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jun -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 1
Jun -12
Jul -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: In the Australian region on UT day 04 June MUFs were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Mildly enhanced MUFs were
observed during local night in the Northern Australian region.
Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to stay mostly at normal levels for the next
three UT days, 05-07 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 30400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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