[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 June 20 issued 2331 UT on 04 Jun 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 5 09:31:29 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JUNE 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jun             06 Jun             07 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 04 June. There 
are two numbered active regions on the visible disc, AR 2764 
and AR 2765. Currently AR 2764 has no sunspots. No Earthward 
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. 
Very low levels of solar activity with a little chance of isolated 
C-class flares are expected for the next three UT days, 05-07 
June. During UT day 04 June, the solar wind speed varied in the 
range 310-350 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 0 nT and 
5 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied mostly in 
the range -5/+3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to stay 
mostly near its background level during UT days 05-07 June, with 
possible moderate enhancements.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   10100121
      Cocos Island         1   00100110
      Darwin               2   11110111
      Townsville           2   00210111
      Learmonth            2   10100221
      Alice Springs        2   10100121
      Gingin               1   00000121
      Canberra             0   00100010
      Hobart               2   10100121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                5   22111131
      Mawson              12   21220045

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1100 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jun     7    Quiet
06 Jun     7    Quiet
07 Jun     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 04 June. The Antarctic region observed mostly 
quiet levels, with one isolated quiet to minor storm period. 
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet with 
a chance of isolated unsettled periods for UT days 05-07 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: During UT day 04 June, MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values with mild enhancements in the Southern Hemisphere 
and varied mostly between the predicted monthly values and moderately 
depressed levels in the Northern Hemisphere. For the next three 
UT days, 05-07 June, similar HF propagation conditions are expected.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jun    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      1
Jun      -12
Jul      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values
06 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: In the Australian region on UT day 04 June MUFs were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. Mildly enhanced MUFs were 
observed during local night in the Northern Australian region. 
Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to stay mostly at normal levels for the next 
three UT days, 05-07 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 337 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    30400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.

More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list