[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 June 20 issued 2331 UT on 02 Jun 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 3 09:31:26 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JUNE 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jun             04 Jun             05 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               74/11              74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 02 June. There 
is one numbered active region on the visible disc, AR 2764, currently 
it has no sunspots. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph images. Very low levels of solar 
activity with a chance of isolated C-class flares are expected 
for the next three UT days, 03-05 June. During UT day 02 June, 
the solar wind speed varied in the range 320-360 km/s. The total 
IMF (Bt) varied between 3 nT and 7 nT, and the north-south IMF 
component (Bz) varied mostly in the range -7/+4 nT with one prolonged 
period of negative Bz, which started at 01/1700 T and ended at 
02/1000 UT. The solar wind speed is expected to stay mostly near 
its background level during UT days 03-05 June, with possible 
moderate enhancements.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12121111
      Cocos Island         1   11110010
      Darwin               3   12111011
      Townsville           5   13122111
      Learmonth            4   12121111
      Alice Springs        3   12121011
      Gingin               5   12121122
      Canberra             3   12122010
      Hobart               5   12132111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    11   12353000
      Casey                5   22211022
      Mawson              29   56432225

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2200 0233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jun     7    Quiet
04 Jun     7    Quiet
05 Jun     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 02 June. The Antarctic region observed mostly 
quiet to minor storm levels. Global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly quiet with a chance of isolated unsettled periods 
for UT days 03-05 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: During UT day 02 June, MUFs were mostly near predicted 
values with mild to moderate enhancements in the Southern Hemisphere 
and varied between the predicted values and moderately depressed 
levels in the Northern Hemisphere. For the next three UT days, 
03-05 June, similar HF propagation conditions are expected.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Jun    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      1
Jun      -12
Jul      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jun     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values
05 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: In the Australian region on UT day 02 June MUFs were 
mostly near predicted monthly values during local day and moderately 
enhanced during local night. Sporadic E was observed over some 
sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to stay mostly 
at normal levels for the next three UT days, 03-05 June. Mild 
to moderate enhancements are likely for 03 June.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 384 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    41100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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