[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 June 20 issued 2331 UT on 02 Jun 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 3 09:31:26 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JUNE 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 02 June. There
is one numbered active region on the visible disc, AR 2764, currently
it has no sunspots. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph images. Very low levels of solar
activity with a chance of isolated C-class flares are expected
for the next three UT days, 03-05 June. During UT day 02 June,
the solar wind speed varied in the range 320-360 km/s. The total
IMF (Bt) varied between 3 nT and 7 nT, and the north-south IMF
component (Bz) varied mostly in the range -7/+4 nT with one prolonged
period of negative Bz, which started at 01/1700 T and ended at
02/1000 UT. The solar wind speed is expected to stay mostly near
its background level during UT days 03-05 June, with possible
moderate enhancements.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 12121111
Cocos Island 1 11110010
Darwin 3 12111011
Townsville 5 13122111
Learmonth 4 12121111
Alice Springs 3 12121011
Gingin 5 12121122
Canberra 3 12122010
Hobart 5 12132111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jun :
Macquarie Island 11 12353000
Casey 5 22211022
Mawson 29 56432225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2200 0233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jun 7 Quiet
04 Jun 7 Quiet
05 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 02 June. The Antarctic region observed mostly
quiet to minor storm levels. Global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly quiet with a chance of isolated unsettled periods
for UT days 03-05 June.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: During UT day 02 June, MUFs were mostly near predicted
values with mild to moderate enhancements in the Southern Hemisphere
and varied between the predicted values and moderately depressed
levels in the Northern Hemisphere. For the next three UT days,
03-05 June, similar HF propagation conditions are expected.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jun 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 1
Jun -12
Jul -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jun 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: In the Australian region on UT day 02 June MUFs were
mostly near predicted monthly values during local day and moderately
enhanced during local night. Sporadic E was observed over some
sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to stay mostly
at normal levels for the next three UT days, 03-05 June. Mild
to moderate enhancements are likely for 03 June.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 41100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list