[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 31 May 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 1 09:31:29 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jun             02 Jun             03 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 31 May. The visible 
disc is spotless. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in 
the available coronagraph images. Very Low levels of solar activity, 
with a chance of isolated C-class flares, are expected for the 
next three UT days, 01-03 June. During UT day 31 May, the solar 
wind speed varied between 370-430 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied 
between 2-6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied 
between +4/-4 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to continue 
to be moderately enhanced on UT day 01 June due to minor coronal 
hole effects, returning to background conditions by 02-03 June.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 31 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11001001
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               1   11010001
      Townsville           1   11011001
      Learmonth            2   12001101
      Alice Springs        0   01000001
      Gingin               1   11001011
      Canberra             1   11001000
      Hobart               2   11011101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001000
      Casey                5   23211111
      Mawson               9   33111114

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15   2344 4223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jun     6    Quiet, with a chance of isolated Unsettled periods
02 Jun     5    Quiet
03 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
Quiet on UT day 31 May. The Antarctic region observed Quiet to 
Unsettled conditions, with an isolated Active period. Global 
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet with a chance 
of isolated Unsettled periods on UT day 01 June due to minor 
coronal hole effects, returning to Quiet levels on UT days 02-03 
June.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values with Mild to 
Moderate enhancements on UT day 31 May. MUFs are expected to 
stay mostly at normal levels for the next three UT days, 01-03 
June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 May     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -13
Jun      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values
02 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values
03 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 30 
May and is current for 30 May to 1 Jun. MUFs were mostly near 
predicted values with Mild to Moderate enhancements in the Australian 
region on UT day 31 May. Sporadic E was observed over some sites. 
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to stay mostly at 
normal levels for the next three UT days, 01-03 June.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 371 km/sec  Density:    9.4 p/cc  Temp:    42200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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