[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 09 Jul 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 10 09:31:27 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 09 July. There
is currently one numbered region on the visible disc (AR 2766
at N04W47), it has no sunspots. No active regions are expected
to rotate onto the visible disc. Very low solar activity is expected
for the next three UT days, 10-12 July. Two CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph images. The fastest CME was visible
since 9/0312 UT and a slower CME became visible around 9/0800
UT. Preliminary modelling shows that a glancing blow due to the
fastest CME may be observed on 13-14 July. The second CME, which
is slower and looks faint, may not have a geoeffective component
when it will arrive at the Earth. During UT day 09 July, the
solar wind speed was near its background levels, varying in the
range 300-350 km/s, currently near 310 km/s. The total IMF (Bt)
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied in the ranges 3-5
nT and +2/-4 nT, respectively. During the next two UT days, 10-11
July, the solar wind speed is expected to stay mostly near its
background levels. Enhancements in the solar wind speed are possible
at the end of UT day 11 July and on 12 July due to coronal hole
effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11111000
Cocos Island 0 10000000
Darwin 1 11100000
Townsville 2 11111001
Learmonth 1 11110000
Alice Springs 0 01100000
Gingin 1 11101000
Canberra 1 00111000
Hobart 2 11112000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 00122000
Casey 2 12121000
Mawson 3 11122200
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jul 7 Quiet
11 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 09 July, geomagnetic conditions were quiet
in the Australian and Antarctic regions. Global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly quiet during the next two UT days, 10-22
July. Unsettled periods are possible at the end of UT day 11
July and on 12 July due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced
levels on UT day 09 July. Moderate depressions were also observed,
mostly at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Mostly normal
HF propagation conditions are expected for the next three UT
days, 10-12 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jul -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -1
Jul -12
Aug -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near monthly predicted
to mildly enhanced levels on UT day 09 July. The enhancements
were observed mostly during local night. Sporadic E was observed
at times over some Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian region
are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced
levels for the next three UT days, 10-12 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 46200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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