[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 July 20 issued 2331 UT on 09 Jul 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 10 09:31:27 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JULY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jul             11 Jul             12 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 09 July. There 
is currently one numbered region on the visible disc (AR 2766 
at N04W47), it has no sunspots. No active regions are expected 
to rotate onto the visible disc. Very low solar activity is expected 
for the next three UT days, 10-12 July. Two CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph images. The fastest CME was visible 
since 9/0312 UT and a slower CME became visible around 9/0800 
UT. Preliminary modelling shows that a glancing blow due to the 
fastest CME may be observed on 13-14 July. The second CME, which 
is slower and looks faint, may not have a geoeffective component 
when it will arrive at the Earth. During UT day 09 July, the 
solar wind speed was near its background levels, varying in the 
range 300-350 km/s, currently near 310 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) 
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied in the ranges 3-5 
nT and +2/-4 nT, respectively. During the next two UT days, 10-11 
July, the solar wind speed is expected to stay mostly near its 
background levels. Enhancements in the solar wind speed are possible 
at the end of UT day 11 July and on 12 July due to coronal hole 
effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11111000
      Cocos Island         0   10000000
      Darwin               1   11100000
      Townsville           2   11111001
      Learmonth            1   11110000
      Alice Springs        0   01100000
      Gingin               1   11101000
      Canberra             1   00111000
      Hobart               2   11112000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     2   00122000
      Casey                2   12121000
      Mawson               3   11122200

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1000 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jul     7    Quiet
11 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: On UT day 09 July, geomagnetic conditions were quiet 
in the Australian and Antarctic regions. Global geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be mostly quiet during the next two UT days, 10-22 
July. Unsettled periods are possible at the end of UT day 11 
July and on 12 July due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced 
levels on UT day 09 July. Moderate depressions were also observed, 
mostly at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Mostly normal 
HF propagation conditions are expected for the next three UT 
days, 10-12 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Jul    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -1
Jul      -12
Aug      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near monthly predicted 
to mildly enhanced levels on UT day 09 July. The enhancements 
were observed mostly during local night. Sporadic E was observed 
at times over some Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian region 
are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced 
levels for the next three UT days, 10-12 July.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 371 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:    46200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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