[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 January 20 issued 2353 UT on 13 Jan 2020

Tue Jan 14 10:53:42 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JANUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan:  72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jan             15 Jan             16 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 13Jan. There are currently 
no sunspots on the visible solar disc and no Earth directed CMEs 
were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Solar wind 
speed ranged from 350km/s to 400km/s between 00UT-12UT and has 
since declined to be 333km/s at the time of this report. The 
north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range +/-3 
nT. An increase in the solar wind speed is expected 14Jan-15Jan 
due to the expected arrival of a high speed solar wind stream 
from a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole. Very low levels 
of solar activity are expected for the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11101011
      Cocos Island         1   01100001
      Darwin               2   11111011
      Townsville           2   11111011
      Learmonth            2   12101011
      Alice Springs        2   11101002
      Gingin               1   11001011
      Canberra             1   01111000
      Hobart               1   11101001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   01001000
      Casey               11   34421012
      Mawson              11   24211134

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   1100 0000     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jan     9    Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jan     9    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Jan     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels over the the 
Australian region for 13Jan with Active to Quiet conditions for 
Antarctic regions. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to 
be mostly at Quiet to Unsettled for 14Jan-15Jan  with a 
slight chance of isolated Active periods due to recurrent coronal 
hole effects. Solar wind speed is expected to be slightly elevated 
due to the effects of the recurrent positive polarity coronal 
hole which on this rotation appears to be smaller. Quiet conditions 
expected for 16Jan.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were mostly normal for 13Jan 
with observed enhancements for northern hemisphere and depressed 
periods for southern hemisphere stations. Similar conditions 
are expected for the next 3 days with possible disturbed ionospheric 
support for high latitudes due to elevated geomagnetic activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
13 Jan   -27

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -29
Jan      -16
Feb      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values
15 Jan   -20    Near predicted monthly values
16 Jan   -15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted 
monthly values to slightly depressed for Northern AUS and Equatorial 
regions for 13Jan. MUFs near predicted monthly values for Antarctic 
regions as well as Southern AUS/NZ sites with notable sporadic 
E observed. Similar HF propagation conditions are expected for 
the next three days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jan
Speed: 411 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    83900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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