[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 February 20 issued 2331 UT on 12 Feb 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 13 10:31:23 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Feb             14 Feb             15 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 12 February. 
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. 
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days, 13-15 February. On UT day 12 February, the solar wind 
speed remained slightly enhanced, varied between 350-430km/s. 
The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 2-5 nT and the north-south 
component of the IMF (Bz) between +/-3 n. The solar wind speed 
is expected to be at background to slightly enhanced levels for 
the next three days, 13-15 February due to weak coronal holes 
effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 12 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12230001
      Cocos Island         2   11120000
      Darwin               4   12230001
      Townsville           5   12231011
      Learmonth            4   21230002
      Alice Springs        4   12230002
      Gingin               4   11230002
      Canberra             3   01230000
      Hobart               4   12231001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     2   01130000
      Casey               13   33532002
      Mawson              12   33232124

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   2320 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Feb     5    Quiet
14 Feb     5    Quiet
15 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for UT day 12 February were at 
Quiet to Unsettled levels for the Australian region. Antarctic 
regions observed one isolated Minor Storm period. Global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next 
three days, 13-15 February with a chance of isolated Unsettled 
periods due to weak coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 13-15 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Feb   -14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -20
Feb      -16
Mar      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Feb   -15    Near predicted monthly values
14 Feb   -15    Near predicted monthly values
15 Feb   -15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 12 February 
were mainly near predicted monthly values for the Australian 
region. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed at some sites. Similar 
levels of ionospheric support are expected for the next three 
days, 13-15 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 405 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    47800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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