[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 February 20 issued 2331 UT on 12 Feb 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 13 10:31:23 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 FEBRUARY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 12 February.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc.
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 13-15 February. On UT day 12 February, the solar wind
speed remained slightly enhanced, varied between 350-430km/s.
The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 2-5 nT and the north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) between +/-3 n. The solar wind speed
is expected to be at background to slightly enhanced levels for
the next three days, 13-15 February due to weak coronal holes
effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 12230001
Cocos Island 2 11120000
Darwin 4 12230001
Townsville 5 12231011
Learmonth 4 21230002
Alice Springs 4 12230002
Gingin 4 11230002
Canberra 3 01230000
Hobart 4 12231001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 01130000
Casey 13 33532002
Mawson 12 33232124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 2320 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Feb 5 Quiet
14 Feb 5 Quiet
15 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for UT day 12 February were at
Quiet to Unsettled levels for the Australian region. Antarctic
regions observed one isolated Minor Storm period. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next
three days, 13-15 February with a chance of isolated Unsettled
periods due to weak coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 13-15 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Feb -14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -20
Feb -16
Mar -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
14 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
15 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for UT day 12 February
were mainly near predicted monthly values for the Australian
region. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed at some sites. Similar
levels of ionospheric support are expected for the next three
days, 13-15 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 405 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 47800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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