[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 December 20 issued 2330 UT on 19 Dec 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 20 10:30:09 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Dec             21 Dec             22 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 19 December, with 
no flares. Solar activity is expected to be very low on 20 to 
22 December, with a remote chance of C-class flares. There were 
no Earth directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph 
images on 19 December. The solar wind parameters were mostly 
at nominal levels on UT day 19 December, with speed range 280 
km/s - 370 km/s, total IMF (Bt) range 2 nT - 10 nT and north-south 
IMF (Bz) range +5/-8 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to 
be near nominal level on UT day 20 December and early part of 
UT day 21 December. From late UT day 21 December, solar wind 
is expected to gradually enhance to moderate/high levels. This 
is in response to a large polar Northern Hemisphere coronal hole 
with extensions in the low latitude region to reach geoeffective 
location on the solar disk. During the previous rotation, this 
coronal hole produced solar wind speed more than 600 km/s. A 
similar effect is expected for this rotation.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11222021
      Cocos Island         3   11222010
      Darwin               4   11222011
      Townsville           8   22232131
      Learmonth            7   11232123
      Alice Springs        5   11232012
      Gingin               5   21122022
      Canberra             6   12222031
      Hobart               5   12222021    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     3   01113020
      Casey               11   33332123
      Mawson              10   42233121

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0000 0100     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Dec     7    Quiet
21 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active
22 Dec    20    Active

COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region 
on UT day 19 December; quiet to unsettled conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be mostly quiet on UT day 20 December and early UT day 21 
December. On late UT day 21 December, geomagnetic conditions 
could reach active levels and occasionally to minor storm levels 
due to the anticipated coronal hole effects. Conditions are expected 
to remain at unsettled to active levels for most of UT day 22 
December.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be mostly 
normal today, UT 20 December.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Dec     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -6
Dec      5
Jan      8

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Dec    10    Near predicted monthly values
21 Dec    15    Near predicted monthly values
22 Dec   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted 
monthly values on UT day 19 December. Frequent strong sporadic 
E were observed over some Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
to mildly depressed levels for the next three UT days 20-22 December, 
in response to the anticipated geomagnetic disturbance associated 
with the coronal hole.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 288 km/sec  Density:   14.4 p/cc  Temp:    33700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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