[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 December 20 issued 2331 UT on 12 Dec 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 13 10:31:37 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Dec             14 Dec             15 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 12 December. Solar 
activity is expected to be very low with a chance of C-class 
flares during the next three UT days, 13 to 15 December. Through 
UT day 12 December, the solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease 
from around 450 km/s to 380 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) remained 
stable between 4 and 6 nT, the north-south component of the IMF 
(Bz) varied in the range +5/-4 nT and the solar wind particle 
density varied mostly from 4 ppcc to 10 ppcc. Solar wind speed 
is expected to show a further gradual decline through UT day 
13 December and then stay at more nominal levels on UT days 14 
and 15 December.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11211122
      Cocos Island         3   11211111
      Darwin               4   11211121
      Townsville           6   11221232
      Learmonth            4   21111122
      Alice Springs        4   11211122
      Gingin               3   21110121
      Canberra             4   12211022
      Hobart               5   12211122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     2   10100021
      Casey               11   23432222
      Mawson              13   32221135

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   3210 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Dec     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
14 Dec     4    Quiet
15 Dec     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region 
and mostly quiet to unsettled conditions in the Antarctic region 
were observed on UT day 12 December. One period of active and 
one period of minor storm conditions were also recorded in the 
Antarctic region on this day. Global geomagnetic conditions are 
expected to be mostly quiet with some possibility of isolated 
unsettled conditions on UT day 13 December and quiet on 14 and 
15 December.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: During UT day 12 December, MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values with periods of minor depressions as well as periods 
of mild enhancements. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values for the next three UT days, 13 to 15 December.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Dec    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -6
Dec      5
Jan      8

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Dec    15    Near predicted monthly values
14 Dec    18    Near predicted monthly values
15 Dec    18    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: During UT day 12 December, MUFs in the Australian region 
were mostly near predicted monthly values with periods of minor 
depressions as well as periods of mild enhancements. MUFs in 
the Australian regions are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values for the next three UT days, 13 to 15 December.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 480 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:   127000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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