[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 August 20 issued 2333 UT on 13 Aug 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 14 09:33:45 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 13 August. There
are two numbered regions on the visible disk: AR2770 and AR2771.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
images. On 13 August, the solar wind speed range was 280-300
km/s with the total IMF (Bt) range 2 to 4 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range +2 to -3 nT. Very low to low solar activity
is expected for 14-16 August. No returning regions are expected.
Solar wind speed is forecast to be near its background levels
for 14-16 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11101000
Cocos Island 1 11101000
Darwin 1 11101001
Townsville 1 11101001
Learmonth 1 11101000
Alice Springs 1 11100000
Gingin 0 10000000
Canberra 1 21000000
Hobart 1 11100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 12110000
Mawson 9 31112134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1211 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Aug 7 Quiet
15 Aug 7 Quiet
16 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region and mostly quiet in the Antarctic region on UT day 13
August. Quiet conditions are expected for 14-16 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected for the
next three UT days, 14-16 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Aug 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -1
Aug -13
Sep -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced values on UT
day 13 August. Night spread F were seen at Darwin, Hobart, Learmonth,
Norfolk Is, Perth, and Townsville. MUFs in the Australian region
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values to moderately
enhanced values for 14-16 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug
Speed: 307 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 23000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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