[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 10 Aug 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 11 09:31:27 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 10 August. AR2770
(now at N22 W24) is stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph images. The solar wind speed range
was 310-380 km/s on 10 August with the total IMF (Bt) range 3
to 5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range +4 to -3
nT. Very low to low solar activity is expected for 11-13 August.
No returning regions are expected. Solar wind parameters are
forecast to be near their background levels for 11-13 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Aug : A K
Australian Region 0 01000100
Cocos Island 0 00000000
Darwin 0 01000100
Townsville 1 11101100
Learmonth 1 01100100
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Gingin 0 00000100
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 1 11101100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 13210100
Mawson 2 21101000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0101 1002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Aug 7 Quiet
12 Aug 7 Quiet
13 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 10 August. Quiet conditions are
expected for 11-13 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 11-13 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Aug 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -1
Aug -13
Sep -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Aug 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced values on UT
day 10 August. Sporadic E were observed at several sites. Night
spread F were seen at Darwin, Brisbane, Learmonth, Norfolk Is,
and Perth. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced values for 11-13
August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: 366 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 36200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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