[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 August 20 issued 2331 UT on 10 Aug 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 11 09:31:27 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 AUGUST 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Aug             12 Aug             13 Aug
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              74/11              72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 10 August. AR2770 
(now at N22 W24) is stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph images. The solar wind speed range 
was 310-380 km/s on 10 August with the total IMF (Bt) range 3 
to 5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range +4 to -3 
nT. Very low to low solar activity is expected for 11-13 August. 
No returning regions are expected. Solar wind parameters are 
forecast to be near their background levels for 11-13 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   01000100
      Cocos Island         0   00000000
      Darwin               0   01000100
      Townsville           1   11101100
      Learmonth            1   01100100
      Alice Springs        0   00000000
      Gingin               0   00000100
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               1   11101100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                3   13210100
      Mawson               2   21101000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0101 1002     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Aug     7    Quiet
12 Aug     7    Quiet
13 Aug     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels in the Australian 
and Antarctic regions on UT day 10 August. Quiet conditions are 
expected for 11-13 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 11-13 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Aug     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -1
Aug      -13
Sep      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Aug     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Aug     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Aug     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near 
predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced values on UT 
day 10 August. Sporadic E were observed at several sites. Night 
spread F were seen at Darwin, Brisbane, Learmonth, Norfolk Is, 
and Perth. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced values for 11-13 
August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: 366 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    36200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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