[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 April 20 issued 2331 UT on 29 Apr 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 30 09:31:23 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Apr             01 May             02 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 29 April. Very 
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days, 30 April to 02 May. The visible disc has two numbered 
regions, AR2760 and AR2761. No returning regions are expected. 
No Earth-bound CMEs were observed in the available LASCO and 
STEREO images. During UT day 29 April, the solar wind speed has 
decreased from 380 km/s to 320 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied 
in the range 2-4 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied 
between -2 and +1 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to stay 
mostly near its background values for the next three UT days, 
30 April to 02 May, with the possibility of occasional enhancements 
due to weak coronal hole influences.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000011
      Cocos Island         1   11000010
      Darwin               1   11000011
      Townsville           2   11000012
      Learmonth            0   10000010
      Alice Springs        0   00000001
      Gingin               0   00000020
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               1   01001010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                3   23100010
      Mawson              11   33111243

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   3101 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Apr     7    Quiet
01 May     7    Quiet
02 May     7    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 29 April, the geomagnetic activity in the 
Australian region was at quiet levels. The Antarctic region observed 
mostly quiet levels, with Mawson station observing unsettled 
to active periods. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to 
stay mainly at quiet levels for the next three UT days, 30 April 
to 02 May, with a chance of isolated unsettled periods due to 
weak coronal hole influences.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted 
monthly values with periods of minor to moderate enhancements 
on UT day 29 April. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 30 April to 02 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Apr     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      1
Apr      -14
May      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Apr     0    Near predicted monthly values
01 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
02 May     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mainly near predicted 
monthly values with periods of minor to moderate enhancements 
for the Australian regions on UT day 29 April. Sporadic E layers 
were observed over most sites. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions 
are expected in the Australian regions for the next three UT 
days, 30 April to 02 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: 396 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    52400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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