[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 April 20 issued 2331 UT on 23 Apr 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 24 09:31:34 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 24 APRIL - 26 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Apr 25 Apr 26 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day, 23 April. Very
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 24-26 April. The visible disc has been spotless and
there are no returning regions expected. No Earth bound CMEs
observed in available LASCO and STEREO images. During UT day
23 April, the solar wind speed gradually decreased from 430 to
nearly 365 km/s by 2300 UT. The total IMF (Bt) gradually increased
from 3 nT to 6 nT by 2200 UT and then decreased to 4 nT by 2300
UT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) stayed mostly in the range
+3/-3 nT, but went south up to -5 nT at 2213 UT. The solar wind
particle density varied between 2 ppcc and 13 ppcc. These observations
seem consistent with the previously anticipated weakening coronal
hole effects. Solar wind parameters are expected to stay mostly
at nominal values for the next three UT days, 24-26 April with
the possibility of occasional slight strengthenings on 24 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 01010001
Darwin 2 11010002
Townsville 1 11110001
Learmonth 1 01110001
Alice Springs 1 01010001
Gingin 0 01000000
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 1 11110001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 4 13210002
Mawson 12 33221105
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 7 3311 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Apr 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
25 Apr 5 Quiet
26 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 23 April, the geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian and Antarctic regions stayed at quiet levels. Short
periods of isolated unsettled conditions were also recorded in
the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to stay at quiet levels for the next three UT days, 24-26 April.
Isolated unsettled periods may also be observed on 24 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to moderate enhancements
on UT day, 23 April. Some periods of minor MUF depressions were
also observed in low-latitude regions. Mostly normal HF conditions
may be expected for the next three UT days, 24 to 26 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Apr -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 1
Apr -14
May -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
25 Apr 2 Near predicted monthly values
26 Apr 2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to moderate enhancements
for the Australian region on UT day, 23 April. Some periods of
minor MUF depressions were also observed in the Northern Australian
regions. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected in the Australian
regions for the next three UT days, 24 to 26 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Apr
Speed: 457 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 176000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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