[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 April 20 issued 2332 UT on 21 Apr 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 22 09:32:01 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Apr 23 Apr 24 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day, 21 April. Very
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 22-24 April. The visible disc has been spotless and
there are no returning regions expected. No Earth bound CMEs
observed in available LASCO and STEREO images. Through UT day
21 April, the solar wind speed stayed mostly between 330 km/s
and 350 km/s during the first half of the day and then showed
a gradual rise to 450 km/s by 2100 UT and then stayed around
450 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) gradually decreased from 15 nT to
3 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) stayed mostly positive
by 0900 UT, then varied in the range +8/-9 nT by 1600 UT and
in the range +3/-5 nT thereafter. The solar wind particle density
varied between 3 ppcc and 33 ppcc, showing a gradually decreasing
trend through the day. These observations seem consistent with
the the previously anticipated coronal hole effects. Solar wind
parameters may show minor to moderate strengthening on UT day
22 and 23 April due to coronal hole effects and then decline
to more nominal values on 24 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 22223321
Darwin 9 32223311
Townsville 8 32222321
Learmonth 11 32223421
Alice Springs 8 22223321
Gingin 6 11112420
Canberra 5 21212310
Hobart 9 21223421
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Apr :
Macquarie Island 12 11033531
Casey 10 23322322
Mawson 22 21212654
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 23 2335 6222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Apr 6 Mostly quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 21 April, the geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian and Antarctic regions varied mostly from quiet to
unsettled levels. Short periods of isolated minor storm were
also recorded in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions
may vary from quiet to unsettled levels on UT day 22 and 23 April
and stay mostly quiet on 24 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to significant enhancements
on UT day, 21 April. Some periods of minor MUF depressions were
also observed in some low-latitude regions. Mostly normal HF
conditions may be expected for the next three UT days, 22 to
24 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Apr 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 1
Apr -14
May -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
23 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
24 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to significant enhancements
for the Australian region on UT day, 21 April. Some periods of
minor MUF depressions were also observed in the Northern Australian
regions. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected in the Australian
regions for the next three UT days, 22 to 24 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Apr
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 8.2 p/cc Temp: 26400 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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