[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 April 20 issued 2331 UT on 11 Apr 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 12 09:31:32 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day, 11 April. There
are currently no sunspot regions on the visible disk. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During
the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed initially decreased from
360 km/s to 330 km/s and then gradually increased to 430 km/s,
the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) varied between 2
nT and 8 nT. During this day the north-south component of interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) stayed in the range +4/-4 nT by 0730 UT and
then varied mostly in the range 0/-7 nT by 2000 UT. Bz stayed
slightly positive (in the range 0/+2 nT) after that. The solar
wind particle density varied in the range of 2 to 12 ppcc through
this time. Some enhancements in solar wind parameters may be
possible on UT day 12 April due to coronal hole effects. Very
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 12-14 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 10113322
Darwin 6 20113311
Townsville 6 10113322
Learmonth 7 11113322
Alice Springs 6 10113322
Gingin 7 11113322
Canberra 2 00012200
Hobart 6 10113322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Apr :
Macquarie Island 11 00025411
Casey 9 32223222
Mawson 22 32112356
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 0112 1312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Apr 5 Quiet
14 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the Australian region stayed
at quiet to unsettled levels through UT day, 11 April. Geomagnetic
activity in the Antarctic region stayed mostly at quiet to unsettled
levels with isolated short minor storm periods through this day.
The global geomagnetic activity may vary from quiet to unsettled
levels through UT day, 12 April. Mostly quiet levels of global
geomagnetic activity may be expected for UT days, 13 and 14 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to significant enhancements
on UT day, 11 April. Some periods of minor MUF depressions were
also recorded at some low-latitude stations. MUFs are expected
to stay mostly near predicted monthly values for the next three
UT days, 12 to 14 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Apr -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 1
Apr -14
May -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Apr -5 Near predicted monthly values
13 Apr -2 Near predicted monthly values
14 Apr -2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values with periods of minor to significant enhancements
for the Australian region on UT day, 11 April. Some periods of
minor MUF depressions were also recorded in the Northern Australian
regions. MUFs in the Australian regions are expected to stay
mostly near predicted monthly values for the next three UT days,
12 to 14 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Apr
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 36100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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