[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 April 20 issued 2331 UT on 09 Apr 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 10 09:31:33 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 10 APRIL - 12 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Apr: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 09 Apr. There are currently
no sunspot regions on the visible disk, however there is a plage
(Ex region 2579) in the NW quadrant which produced a low level
B-class flare at 0932 UT. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. Very Low levels of solar
activity are expected for the next three days, 10-12 Apr. During
the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed gradually decreased from
480 Km/s, currently near 350 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic
field (Bt) varied between 2 nT and 5 nT and the north-south component
of interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) varied mostly in the range
+/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be near its nominal/background
levels today, 10 Apr. On 11-12 Apr, the solar wind is expected
to enhance in response to high-speed streams associated with
a negative polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 10012010
Darwin 1 10001011
Townsville 2 10012011
Learmonth 2 10022010
Alice Springs 1 10002000
Gingin 2 10012010
Canberra 0 00-01000
Hobart 3 10013111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 10012000
Casey 7 23222121
Mawson 18 22132164
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 1322 3313
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Apr 7 Mostly Quiet
11 Apr 15 Quiet to Active
12 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 09 Apr was Quiet for the Australian
region. The Antarctic region observed mostly Quiet to Unsettled
conditions. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet
to Unsettled for 10-12 Apr with possible Active levels on 11
Apr due to coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal
11 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three days, 10-12 Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Apr -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 1
Apr -14
May -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Apr -5 Near predicted monthly values
11 Apr -10 Near predicted monthly values
12 Apr -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values for the Australian region on 09 Apr. Mild MUFs
enhancements observed at Cocos Island region local night. Similar
levels of ionospheric support is expected for the next three
days, 10-12 Apr. Mild MUFs depressions may be observed on 11-12
Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Apr
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 14.1 p/cc Temp: 155000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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