[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 March 20 issued 2354 UT on 31 Mar 2020

Wed Apr 1 10:54:38 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Apr             02 Apr             03 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 31Mar. There is currently 
one numbered region on the visible disc, region 2759 located 
at N28E55 is small in size at 20 millionths of the solar hemisphere. 
No earth-directed CMEs observed in available coronagraph imagery. 
The solar wind speed ranged between 455km/s and 534km/s over 
the UT day and is currently 502km/s at the time of this report. 
The north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) 
ranged between +6nT and -7nT between 00UT-13UT with notable prolonged 
southward excursions. Bz magnitude has decreased since and is 
currently fluctuating between +3 and -4nT. Solar wind speeds 
are expected to be slightly elevated over the next 24 hours due 
coronal hole effects. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low 
for the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 31 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22322321
      Cocos Island         7   12312320
      Darwin               8   22322321
      Townsville           9   22332321
      Learmonth            9   22322331
      Alice Springs        8   22322321
      Gingin              13   23333332
      Canberra             6   12322120
      Hobart              10   22333321    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    19   23445411
      Casey               17   34433332
      Mawson              34   55433364

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              14   (Quiet)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   1221 2333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
02 Apr     6    Quiet
03 Apr     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity observed for 
the Australian region 31Mar with Antarctic regions experiencing 
Unsettled to Active conditions with some isolated Minor Storm 
periods. Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions expected for 
the Australian region over the next 24 hours with Unsettled to 
Active conditions for Antarctic regions. Mostly Quiet conditions 
for Australian regions and Unsettled to Active conditions for 
Antarctic regions 02Apr-03Apr.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values to slightly enhanced for Low-Mid latitudes 31Mar. 
Poor ionospheric support for High latitudes. Similar conditions 
are expected for the next 3 days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
31 Mar     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -8
Mar      -15
Apr      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Apr     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Apr     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Apr     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum Usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted 
monthly values to enhanced for Equatorial, Northern AUS and Southern 
AUS/NZ regions on 31Mar. Notable sporadic E observed again at 
SWS stations Cocos Is, Darwin, Perth and Learmonth. Disturbed 
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. MUFs are expected 
to range from near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced 
for Equatorial, Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ region 01Apr-03Apr 
with disturbed ionospheric support expected for Antarctic regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 403 km/sec  Density:    6.9 p/cc  Temp:    81000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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