[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 October 19 issued 2331 UT on 13 Oct 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 14 10:31:39 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Oct             15 Oct             16 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 13 October. 
There are currently no sunspot regions on the visible disc and 
no active regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disc. 
Very Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 
14-16 October. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed varied between 380 
Km/s and 320 km/s. The total IMF Bt varied between 2 to 5 nT. 
The north-south component of IMF Bz varied between -2 nT and 
+ 5 nT and was mostly positive. During the next three UT days, 
14-16 October, the solar wind speed is expected to vary between 
its nominal and slightly enhanced levels due to the possible 
influence of a weak coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   10000001
      Darwin               1   10100001
      Townsville           1   10000011
      Learmonth            1   11000001
      Alice Springs        0   10000001
      Gingin               0   01000000
      Canberra             0   00000001
      Launceston           0   1000000-
      Hobart               0   00000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                4   32210000
      Mawson               2   30000002

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2111 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Oct    12    Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of an isolated 
                Active period.
15 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Oct     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 13 October, the geomagnetic activity was at 
Quiet levels in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region, 
geomagnetic activity varied from Quiet to Unsettled levels. Global 
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet to Unsettled 
levels for the next two UT days, 14-15 October with a chance 
of an isolated Active period on UT day 14 October due to weak 
coronal hole effects. Global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to return to Quiet levels on UT days 16 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal
15 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Oct   -23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      -5
Oct      -15
Nov      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Oct   -20    Near predicted monthly values
15 Oct   -20    Near predicted monthly values
16 Oct   -20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 13 October, Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) 
in the Australian region were mostly near predicted monthly values. 
The Equatorial region observed minor to moderate MUFs depressions 
during the local night. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were 
observed over some sites. For the next 3 UT days, 14-16 October, 
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 401 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    58800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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