[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 October 19 issued 2331 UT on 09 Oct 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 10 10:31:33 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 09 October.
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days,
10-12 October. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 09 October, the solar wind
speed ranged between 370 km/s and 410 km/s, the total IMF Bt
varied between 2.5 and 10.5 nT and the north-south component
of the IMF Bz varied between -7.5 nT and +8 nT. Mostly nominal solar
wind speed is expected for the next three UT days, 10-12 October
with the possibility of some enhancements on 11 and 12 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled,
isolated active periods
Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 11232211
Cocos Island 5 11131211
Darwin 7 21232221
Townsville 7 11233221
Learmonth 6 11232211
Alice Springs 6 11232211
Gingin 6 11232211
Canberra 9 11343111
Launceston 10 12343221
Hobart 9 12343111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Oct :
Macquarie Island 24 01474000
Casey 10 33332112
Mawson 8 22332211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2120 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Oct 5 Quiet
11 Oct 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
12 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 09 October, the geomagnetic activity was at
quiet to active levels in the Australian and Antarctic regions.
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at quiet
levels for the next 2 UT days (10-11 October) with the possibility
of isolated unsettled periods on 11 October. Quiet to unsettled
levels of geomagnetic activity may be expected on UT day 12 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 09 October with some periods of
minor to mild depressions as well as enhancements. For the next
3 UT days, 10-12 October, MUFs are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly values.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Oct -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -5
Oct -15
Nov -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
11 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
12 Oct -12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day
09 October with some periods of minor to mild depressions as
well as minor to mild enhancements. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences
were observed over some sites. For the next 3 UT days, 10-12
October, MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values across the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5e+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00e+07
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 57900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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