[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 September 19 issued 2332 UT on 30 Sep 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 1 09:32:34 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Oct 02 Oct 03 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 30 September
with no active regions on the visible disc. No active regions
are expected to rotate onto the visible disc and Very Low solar
activity is expected for the next three UT days, 1-3 October.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. During UT day 30 September, the solar wind speed gradually
declined from around 500 km/s at the start of the UT day, to
around 460 km/s currently. The total IMF (Bt) varied mainly between
3 to 7 nT, but reached a maximum of 8.6 nT at 30/2126 UT. The
north-south component of the IMF (Bz) was predominantly southward,
varying between -6 to +2 nT, then became variable after 30/1600
UT, varying between -4 to 6 nT. During the next 3 UT days, 01-03
October, the solar wind is expected to continue to decrease to
background levels as the influence of the recurrent positive
polarity coronal hole wanes. A negative polarity southern hemisphere
coronal hole may become geoeffective late on UT day 03 October
but only a moderate enhancement in the solar wind is expected.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Sep : A K
Australian Region 9 22333221
Cocos Island 6 22312211
Darwin 9 21333221
Townsville 8 22233221
Learmonth 10 22333222
Alice Springs 9 22333221
Gingin 11 22333322
Canberra 9 12333221
Launceston 13 22443321
Hobart 11 12343321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Sep :
Macquarie Island 25 23654410
Casey 9 33311222
Mawson 24 54423325
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 2322 1344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Oct 11 Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of Active periods
COMMENT: On UT day 30 September, the geomagnetic activity was
at Quiet to Unsettled levels in the Australian region, with a
period of Unsettled to Active conditions at high latitudes. In
the Antarctic region, geomagnetic activity was mainly Quiet to
Active, with some isolated Minor to Major Storm periods observed
at Mawson station and Macquarie Island. On UT days 01-03 October,
global geomagnetic activity is expected to decrease to Quiet
and Unsettled levels as the influence of the coronal hole wanes,
with a chance of Active periods late on UT day 03 October due
to possible coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions are possible at high
latitudes for 01 October due to recent geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Sep -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug -3
Sep -14
Oct -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
02 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
03 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day
30 September. Minor MUF depressions were observed in the Northern
Australian region during the local night. Sporadic-E and Spread-F
occurrences were observed over some sites. For the next 3 UT
days, 1-3 October, MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values. Degraded HF propagation conditions are possible at high
latitudes for 01 October due to recent geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:35%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 533 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 177000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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