[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 21 Nov 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 22 10:31:37 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 21 November.
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days (22 to 24 November). There are currently no sunspots
on the visible disc and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. As anticipated, the solar
wind stream stayed strong through UT day 21 November due to the
coronal hole effect. During this day, the solar wind speed gradually
increased from 360 km/s to 600 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied
between 3 and 12 nT, the north-south component of IMF (Bz) between
-7/+7 nT and the solar wind particle density between 2 ppcc and
10 ppcc. This rise in solar wind parameter is due to the effect
of the high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal
hole. This effect is expected to continue through UT days 22
and 23 November showing a gradual decline through 23 and 24 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Predominantly
quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Nov : A K
Australian Region 10 22223233
Cocos Island 9 12123332
Darwin 8 22123223
Townsville 11 22223234
Learmonth 11 22223333
Alice Springs 9 22223223
Gingin 11 22223333
Canberra 5 12212212
Hobart 11 22323233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Nov :
Macquarie Island 14 12135332
Casey 22 54433234
Mawson 27 43323356
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0100 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Nov 18 Mostly unsettled to active
23 Nov 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, some active periods
possible
24 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Through UT day 21 November, the geomagnetic activity
stayed predominantly at quiet to unsettled levels in the Australian
and the Antarctic regions. Isolated active and minor storm periods
were also observed in the Antarctic regions. Due to the continued
effect of a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole, global
geomagnetic activity is expected to stay at unsettled to active
levels through UT day 22 November and then show a gradual decline
through UT days 23 and 24 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
23 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values to depressed
by up to 25%. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed
during the next 3 UT days, 22 to 24 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Nov -18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Nov -35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
40%
23 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
24 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near monthly
predicted values to depressed by up to 25%. MUFs in the Antarctic
region were near monthly predicted values. Minor to moderate
MUF depressions may be observed in the Australian region during
the next 3 UT days, 22 to 24 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 333 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 30000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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