[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 19 Nov 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 20 10:31:31 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 19 November.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc and no Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Through
UT day 19 November, the solar wind speed varied mostly between
330 and 360 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) between 1.8 and 4.2 nT,
the north-south component of IMF (Bz) between -2.7/+3.5 nT and
the solar wind particle density between 2 ppcc and 5 ppcc. Solar
wind stream is expected to remain at ambient levels through the
first half of the UT day 20 November and then show gradual strengthening
through the rest of the UT day 20 November and 21 November due
to the effect of a positive polarity recurrent coronal hole.
Due to this coronal hole effect, the solar wind parameters are
expected to remain enhanced on UT day 22 November as well. Very
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days (20 to 22 November).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 01000211
Cocos Island 1 11000100
Darwin 2 01000211
Townsville 4 22011212
Learmonth 2 01000221
Alice Springs 1 01000201
Gingin 2 01000211
Canberra 2 00000130
Hobart 2 02100111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 01100100
Casey 9 34410110
Mawson 7 23211222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Nov 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
21 Nov 16 Quiet to active
22 Nov 16 Quiet to active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed predominantly at quiet levels
in the Australian and Antarctic regions through UT day 19 November.
Isolated unsettled and active periods were also observed in the
Antarctic regions. Due to the effect of a recurrent positive
polarity coronal hole, global geomagnetic activity is expected
to gradually rise to unsettled and later active levels through
UT days 20 and 21 November and stay at these levels through 22
November too.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
22 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions were observed for UT day 19 November
with maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranging from near predicted
monthly values to moderately depressed in low and mid latitude
regions. MUFs stayed mostly near predicted monthly values in
high latitude regions during this day. Minor to moderate MUF
depressions may be expected for the next three UT days, 20 to
22 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Nov -29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Nov -35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
21 Nov -40 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
40%
22 Nov -40 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
40%
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions were observed over the AUS/NZ
region for UT day 19 November with maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) ranging from near predicted monthly values to moderately
depressed for Equatorial and Northern AUS regions. MUFs stayed
mostly near predicted monthly values for Southern AUS and Antarctic
regions during this day. Minor to moderate MUF depressions may
be expected in this region for the next three UT days, 20 to
22 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 366 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 36900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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