[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 May 19 issued 2331 UT on 30 May 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 31 09:31:28 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 31 MAY - 02 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 May 01 Jun 02 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 71/6 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 30 May. There
are no sunspots on the visible solar disk. There were no earth-directed
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT
days, 31 May to 2 June. During the UT day 30 May, the solar wind
speed was mostly decreasing from 540-550 km/s to 470 km/s, currently
near 500 km/s. The IMF Btotal varied in the range 2-5 nT. There
were no notable periods of negative Bz. On UT day 31 May the
solar wind speed is expected to decrease further; however, it
is expected to be moderately elevated for the most of the day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 May : A K
Australian Region 7 22232221
Cocos Island 4 21-11121
Darwin 6 22231111
Townsville 6 22231121
Learmonth 8 32232221
Alice Springs 7 22232121
Culgoora 7 22232121
Gingin 9 32232231
Canberra 9 22242221
Launceston 9 22242222
Hobart 9 22242221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 May :
Macquarie Island 10 22151211
Casey 11 33322331
Mawson 41 65323166
Davis 24 53323163
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 14 3433 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet to Unsettled
levels across the Australian region for the UT day 30 May. Quiet
to Major Storm levels were observed in Antarctica. For the next
3 UT days, 31 May to 2 June, the global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: During the last 24 hours maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) were mostly near predicted monthly values and mildly enhanced.
Mild to moderate depressions were also observed in the Northern
hemisphere across all latitudes. Variable HF conditions are expected
for 31 May. For the Northern hemisphere, mildly to moderately
depressed MUFs are likely for mid to high latitudes. For the
Southern hemisphere, near predicted monthly MUFs and mildly depressed
ones are expected with disturbed ionospheric support for high
latitudes. Occasional enhancements are possible across all latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 May 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -12
Jun -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 May -7 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
01 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced ones for
Australian regions and Antarctica. Notable periods of degraded
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions over the UT day. For
31 May, MUFs are expected to range mostly near predicted monthly
levels. Mild depressions are also possible as consequence of
the recent increase in geomagnetic activity. Mostly near predicted
monthly levels are expected for 1-2 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 May
Speed: 531 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 155000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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