[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 May 19 issued 2331 UT on 30 May 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 31 09:31:28 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 31 MAY - 02 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 May:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 May             01 Jun             02 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               71/6               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 30 May. There 
are no sunspots on the visible solar disk. There were no earth-directed 
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT 
days, 31 May to 2 June. During the UT day 30 May, the solar wind 
speed was mostly decreasing from 540-550 km/s to 470 km/s, currently 
near 500 km/s. The IMF Btotal varied in the range 2-5 nT. There 
were no notable periods of negative Bz. On UT day 31 May the 
solar wind speed is expected to decrease further; however, it 
is expected to be moderately elevated for the most of the day.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 30 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22232221
      Cocos Island         4   21-11121
      Darwin               6   22231111
      Townsville           6   22231121
      Learmonth            8   32232221
      Alice Springs        7   22232121
      Culgoora             7   22232121
      Gingin               9   32232231
      Canberra             9   22242221
      Launceston           9   22242222
      Hobart               9   22242221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 May :
      Macquarie Island    10   22151211
      Casey               11   33322331
      Mawson              41   65323166
      Davis               24   53323163

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        3   (Quiet)
      Gingin               3   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             14   3433 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
02 Jun     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet to Unsettled 
levels across the Australian region for the UT day 30 May. Quiet 
to Major Storm levels were observed in Antarctica. For the next 
3 UT days, 31 May to 2 June, the global geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: During the last 24 hours maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) were mostly near predicted monthly values and mildly enhanced. 
Mild to moderate depressions were also observed in the Northern 
hemisphere across all latitudes. Variable HF conditions are expected 
for 31 May. For the Northern hemisphere, mildly to moderately 
depressed MUFs are likely for mid to high latitudes. For the 
Southern hemisphere, near predicted monthly MUFs and mildly depressed 
ones are expected with disturbed ionospheric support for high 
latitudes. Occasional enhancements are possible across all latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 May     0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -12
Jun      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 May    -7    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25%
01 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values
02 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced ones for 
Australian regions and Antarctica. Notable periods of degraded 
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions over the UT day. For 
31 May, MUFs are expected to range mostly near predicted monthly 
levels. Mild depressions are also possible as consequence of 
the recent increase in geomagnetic activity. Mostly near predicted 
monthly levels are expected for 1-2 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 May
Speed: 531 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:   155000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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