[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 March 19 issued 2330 UT on 30 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 31 10:30:22 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Mar 01 Apr 02 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 30 Mar. The visible
disc is currently spotless and there were no earth directed CMEs
observed in the available imagery. Solar activity is expected
to remain Very Low for the next 3 days, 31 Mar-2 Apr. On UT day
30 Mar, the solar wind speed declined from 420 km/s to nearly
370 km/s in response to the waning effect of a negative polarity
coronal hole. During this period the total IMF (Bt) ranged between
3 nT and 5 nT and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated
between +/-3 nT, mostly neutral. A slight enhancement in the
solar wind speed may be observed over the next three UT days,
31 Mar-2 Apr due some weak dispatched coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Mar : A K
Australian Region 1 11011000
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 1 21000001
Townsville 1 11011001
Learmonth 1 11000100
Alice Springs 1 11001001
Culgoora 1 10011000
Gingin 2 21011100
Canberra 1 11011000
Launceston 2 11122000
Hobart 2 11022000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 01010000
Casey 5 33210101
Mawson 12 44111133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2122 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 30 Mar. Unsettled to Active periods were observed
in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic activity may increase to
Unsettled levels on UT days 31 Mar- 2Apr March if the solar wind
becomes enhanced due to weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on 30 Mar.
Similar HF conditions are expected today, 31 Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Mar -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values
01 Apr -10 Near predicted monthly values
02 Apr -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly Near predicted monthly MUFs were observed for
the Australian region on UT day 30 Mar. Moderate enhancements
were observed in Cocos Island region during local day and night.
Similar levels of ionospheric support may be observed 31 Mar-02
Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 463 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 70800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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