[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 March 19 issued 2330 UT on 28 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 29 10:30:20 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Mar 30 Mar 31 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 28 March. The visible
disc is currently spotless and there were no earth directed CMEs
observed in the available imagery. Solar activity is expected
to remain Very Low for the next 3 days, 29-31 March. The solar
wind parameters show the arrival of the anticipated corotating
interaction region associated with a negative polarity coronal
hole starting 28/0340UT. The Solar wind speed started increasing
from 350 Km/s at 28/0340UT, currently ~520 Km/s. During this
period, the total IMF (Bt) increased from 7 nT reaching 14 nT
at 28/0830UT and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated
between -8 nT and +9 nT with short lived southward excursions.
Enhanced solar wind speeds are expected to continue today, 29
March as coronal hole effects persist then begin to wane on UT
day 30 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 12223222
Cocos Island 5 11112222
Darwin 6 12222222
Townsville 7 12223222
Learmonth 7 12223222
Alice Springs 7 12223222
Culgoora 7 12223221
Gingin 6 12113222
Canberra 6 22213121
Launceston 8 22223222
Hobart 6 12213211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Mar :
Macquarie Island 8 11314211
Casey 15 44332223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2223 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Mar 12 Quiet to Unsettled with possible isolated Active
periods.
30 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 28 March. Active conditions
observed in Antarctic region. The observed disturbed conditions
are due to coronal hole effects. For 29-31 March, the geomagnetic
activity is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels with
possible isolated Active periods today 29 March as coronal hole
effects persist.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on 28 March.
Similar HF conditions are expected today, 29 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Mar -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values
30 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values
31 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly Near predicted monthly MUFs were observed for
the Australian region on UT day 28 March. Moderate enhancements
were observed in Cocos Island region during local night. Similar
levels of ionospheric support may be observed 29-31 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 354 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 40100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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