[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 March 19 issued 2330 UT on 26 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 27 10:30:19 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Mar 28 Mar 29 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 26 March. The visible
disc is currently spotless and there were no earth directed CMEs
observed in the available imagery. Solar activity is expected
to remain Very Low for the next 3 days, 27-29 March. On 26 March
the solar wind speed remained at it nominal levels, varying in
the range 320-370 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 2 nT
and 8 nT and its north-south component (Bz) was predominantly
northward at approx 6nT for most of the UT day. Solar wind speed
is expected to start increasing today, 27 March due to the anticipated
onset of a high speed solar wind stream from an equatorial located
negative polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 22101002
Cocos Island 2 21100001
Darwin 2 22101001
Townsville 3 22101012
Learmonth 3 22011002
Alice Springs 3 22001002
Culgoora 3 22101002
Gingin 2 22000001
Canberra 4 23001002
Launceston 5 23101003
Hobart 4 23101002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 22001001
Casey 6 33211002
Mawson 7 34112100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 3 1100 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Mar 20 Quiet to Active
28 Mar 15 Quiet to Active
29 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Australian region on UT day 26 March and are expected to
remain so until the arrival of the corotating interaction region
and high speed solar wind streams associated with a negative
polarity coronal hole today, 27 March. Geomagnetic activity is
expected to increase to Unsettled to Active levels. Active levels
should continue on UT day 28 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal
28 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on 26 March.
Similar HF conditions are expected for today, UT day 27 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Mar 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
28 Mar -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
29 Mar -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Mostly Near predicted monthly MUFs were observed for
Australian region on UT day 26 March. Moderate enhancements were
observed in Cocos Island region during local night. Similar levels
of ionospheric support are expected today, 27 March. Degraded
HF conditions may be observed 28-29 March due to disturbed geomagnetic
conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 320 km/sec Density: 11.6 p/cc Temp: 30100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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