[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 March 19 issued 2349 UT on 16 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 17 10:49:02 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 16th March. The visible
disc is currently spotless and there were no earth directed CME's
observed in the available imagery. The solar wind speed (Vsw)
gradually increased form ~380km/s at 00UT to be 460km/s at the
time of this report. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz)
fluctuated between +5nt and -6nT with occasional periods of sustained
southward Bz. Solar wind speed is expected to be slightly elevated
over the next 12-24 hours after which a return to ambient conditions
is expected. From 19Mar Vsw is expected to increase again with
the expected arrival of a high speed solar wind stream from a
positive polarity equatorial located coronal hole. Solar activity
is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 days with only
slight chance for C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 16 Mar : A K
Australian Region 11 11134323
Cocos Island 7 -1113223
Darwin 7 11123213
Townsville 11 21134323
Learmonth 14 11125324
Alice Springs 10 11124323
Culgoora 9 11133323
Gingin 13 11134334
Canberra 9 11133323
Launceston 11 11134323
Hobart 11 11134323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Mar :
Macquarie Island 11 01244322
Casey 16 33433224
Mawson 33 23243447
Davis 21 32332336
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2 2 2 0 0 1 2 ?
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Mar 12 Unsettled
18 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Mar 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled with Active conditions observed in
the latter half of the UT day for the Australian/NZ region on
16Mar. Unsettled to Active conditions for Antarctic regions with
brief minor storm period towards the end of the UT day. Unsettled
conditions expected for 17Mar with the chance of isolated Active
periods. Quiet to Unsettled conditions for 18Mar. Unsettled conditions
with possible Active levels for 19Mar due to coronal hole activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for 16Mar at Low latitudes
ranging from mildly depressed MUFs to slightly enhanced. MUFs
near predicted monthly value for mid latitudes while occasional
disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes. Similar HF
conditions are expected for the next 3 days with the chance of
significantly depressed MUFs for high to mid latitudes due to
increased geomagnetic activity on 19Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Mar -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
19 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for 16Mar with slightly
depressed MUFs for Northern AUS regions during local day and
periods of enhanced ionospheric support for Equatorial, Northern
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions during local night. Disturbed
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 3 days with the chance of slight MUF
depressions for Northern and Southern AUS/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 66800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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