[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 March 19 issued 2351 UT on 11 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 12 10:51:31 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 11th March. Region 2734
is the only numbered sunspot region on the visible solar disk
and is currently located near N08W54. The solar wind speed ranged
between 317km/s to 377 km/s and is ~330km/s at the time of this
report. The north south component of the IMF (Bz) fluctuated
between +/-4nT over the UT day with no sustained southward excursions.
No observed effects on the solar wind attributed to the CME associated
with the 08Mar C1.3 flare. A possible late arrival for this CME
expected in the first half of the UT day 12Mar. Slight chance
of glancing blow effects from the faint CME associated with the
B6.1 flare 09Mar expected sometime on the 13 March. Onset of
enhanced solar wind speeds are expected from late in the UT day
13Mar to midway through 14Mar due to a recurrent equatorial located
negative polarity coronal hole that appears to have increased
in size from last rotation (as seen in SDO AIA193 imagery). Solar
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 days with
only slight chance for C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 10121000
Darwin 1 00111001
Townsville 2 10121001
Learmonth 2 11112000
Alice Springs 1 10111000
Culgoora 2 20121001
Gingin 1 11111000
Canberra 1 00121000
Launceston 4 11231001
Hobart 2 01121000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 00131000
Casey 7 23322011
Mawson 7 11222114
Davis 5 12322001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
13 Mar 20 Active
14 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the Australian/NZ region
for 11Mar while Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed for Antarctic
regions. Initially Quiet conditions are expected for 12Mar with
the chance of increased solar wind speeds due to a late arriving
CME observed on 08Mar that may result in Active to Minor Storm
conditions. Should CME effects not eventuate, Quiet to Unsettled
conditions expected through till late on 13Mar. Unsettled to
Active conditions possible for 13Mar-14Mar due to the anticipated
arrival of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for 11Mar. MUF
expected to be near predicted monthly values for 12Mar with the
chance of degraded HF conditions for 13-14 March due to an expected
increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Mar -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values
13 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
14 Mar -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for 11Mar.
Mildly enhanced MUFs observed during local day for Equatorial
regions. Similar HF conditions are expected for 12Mar. Variable
HF conditions expected for 13Mar-14Mar with possible enhancements
to notable depressed ionospheric support due to expected increase
in geomagnetic activity over this time.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0e+05 p/(cm2-ster-day)
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day)
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00e+08 e/(cm2-ster-day)
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 45800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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