[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 March 19 issued 2330 UT on 09 Mar 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 10 10:30:13 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MARCH 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 10 MARCH - 12 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Mar: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low on UT day 09 March, with only
one B class flare (B6.1) peaking at 09/1226 UT from Region 2734.
Region 2734 is the only numbered sunspot region on the visible
solar disk, and is currently located near N08W28 at 09/2300 UT.
The B6.1 flare triggered a fainted halo coronal mass ejection
(CME) which was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images at 09/1612 UT
and in STEREO-COR2 around 09/1500 UT. More details on the possible
impact of this CME on earth will be given after the completion
of the models. A second CME first observed in LASCO-C2 imagery
starting at 08/2212 UT is believed to be triggered by a far-side
event and therefore will not impact earth. The CME associated
the 08/0339 UT C1.3 flare is expected to arrive at earth on 11
March between 0200 UT and 1200 UT. Solar activity is expected
to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 10-12 March, with
a remote chance for C-class flares. On UT day 09 March, the solar
wind speed ranged between 400 km/s and 450 km/s. The observed
mildly elevated solar wind speeds are caused by small patchy
equatorial coronal holes. During the last 24 hours, the total
IMF (Bt) was mostly steady near 5 nT. The north-south component
of IMF (Bz) ranged between +4 nT and -5 nT without significant
periods of southward Bz. The outlook for today (UT day 10 March)
is for the solar wind to remain mostly near its nominal and slightly
elevated levels in response to the effects associated with the
small patchy equatorial coronal holes. On late UT 11 March, the
solar wind speed is expected to enhance due to the possible arrival
of 08 March CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 11112112
Cocos Island 3 11112111
Darwin 2 10211002
Townsville 4 10212112
Learmonth 4 11113012
Alice Springs 2 01112002
Culgoora 3 11112002
Gingin 4 10113112
Canberra 2 01112002
Launceston 6 11223112
Hobart 4 10113102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Mar :
Macquarie Island 3 00023101
Casey 12 34422112
Mawson 9 21222134
Davis 6 22322021
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 2011 0001
F. Comments: None
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Mar 7 Quiet
11 Mar 30 Active to Minor Storm
12 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 8 March and
is current for 11 Mar only. Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 09 March. Quiet
and Active conditions were observed in the Antarctic region.
The observed sporadic disturbed conditions are because the Earth
is currently under the influence of solar wind streams emanating
from small patchy equatorial coronal holes. The outlook for today
(UT day 10 March) is the global geomagnetic activity to be mostly
at Quiet levels and at times may reach Unsettled levels due to
the current equatorial coronal hole effects. On 11 March a CME
associated with a C1.3 flare is expected to arrive at Earth;
this may result in increase in the global geomagnetic activity
up to Minor Storm levels. Isolated Major Storm levels are also
possible. Disturbed conditions are expected to continue on 12
March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal
11 Mar Fair Fair Fair-poor
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 9 March there were mild sporadic MUF depressions.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for today, 10 March,
with occasional MUF depressions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Mar -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -15
Mar -12
Apr -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
11 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
12 Mar -25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 09 March, MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted
levels. Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected for
the next 2 UT days, 10-11 March. Degraded HF conditions are likely
for 12 March due to predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0e+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10e+07
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Mar
Speed: 409 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 56000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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