[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 May 19 issued 2331 UT on 31 May 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 1 09:31:27 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 31 May. There
are no sunspots on the visible solar disk. There were no earth-directed
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT
days, 1-3 June. During the UT day 31 May, the solar wind speed
was mostly decreasing from 510 km/s to 370 km/s, currently near
380 km/s. The IMF Btotal varied in the range 2-4 nT. There were
no notable periods of negative Bz. On UT day 1 June the solar
wind speed is expected to remain near its background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 May : A K
Australian Region 2 12201000
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 1 11101000
Townsville 3 22201001
Learmonth 3 22201000
Alice Springs 2 12201000
Culgoora 2 12201000
Gingin 2 11201010
Canberra 2 11201000
Launceston 3 22202000
Hobart 2 11201000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 May :
Macquarie Island 2 11211000
Casey 4 32211010
Mawson 10 33312132
Davis 12 22312053
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3222 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jun 7 Quiet
02 Jun 7 Quiet
03 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region for the UT day 31 May. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled
levels were observed in Antarctica. For the next 3 UT days, 1-3
June, the global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly
at Quiet levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: During the last 24 hours maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) were mostly near predicted monthly values and mildly enhanced.
Mild to moderate depressions were also observed in the Northern
hemisphere across all latitudes. Variable HF conditions are expected
for 1 June. Occasional enhancements are possible across all latitudes.
For the Northern hemisphere, mildly to moderately depressed MUFs
are likely for mid to high latitudes. For the Southern hemisphere,
near predicted monthly MUFs are expected with disturbed ionospheric
support for high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 May -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -12
Jun -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced ones for Australian
regions and Antarctica. Notable periods of degraded ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions over the UT day. For 1-3 June,
MUFs are expected to range mostly near predicted monthly levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 516 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 157000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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