[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 July 19 issued 2346 UT on 30 Jul 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 31 09:46:27 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jul 01 Aug 02 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 30 July.
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is
expected for the next 3 UT days, 31 July to 02 August. There
were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 30 July, the solar wind speed started near
its background levels, then began to gradually increase after
30/0700 UT, reaching a maximum of 494 km/s at 30/2324 UT. The
total IMF (Bt) also started to gradually increase after 30/0700
UT reaching a maximum of 11.25 nT at 30/2228 UT. The north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) reached a minimum of -8.58 nT at 30/1924
UT and is currently varying between +/-9 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain enhanced on UT days 31 July and 01 August
due to the influence of a recurrent negative polarity equatorial
coronal hole, then begin to weaken on 02 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 00013322
Cocos Island 6 10013322
Darwin 5 10013312
Townsville 6 11013322
Learmonth 7 01013422
Alice Springs 5 00013322
Culgoora 5 00013322
Gingin 5 00002331
Canberra 4 00002322
Launceston 7 00013422
Hobart 4 00002322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 00002211
Casey 7 11121332
Mawson 19 41112355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2320 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jul 14 Unsettled to Active
01 Aug 14 Unsettled to Active
02 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity were
recorded in the Australian region on UT day 30 July, with some
sites observing an isolated Active period. Mainly Quiet to Unsettled
levels were observed in the Antarctic region, with Mawson experiencing
Active to Minor Storm levels. Global geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at Unsettled to Active levels for the next two
UT days, 31 July and 01 August due to the effects of a recurrent
equatorial coronal hole, returning to Quiet to Unsettled levels
on 02 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 UT days, 31 July to 02 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jul -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -4
Jul -12
Aug -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values
01 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
02 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near
predicted monthly values across the Australian/NZ regions on
UT day 30 July. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed
over some sites. MUFs in the Australian/NZ regions are expected
to stay mostly near the predicted monthly values for the next
three UT days, 31 July to 02 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 40500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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