[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 July 19 issued 2335 UT on 28 Jul 2019

Mon Jul 29 09:35:49 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jul             30 Jul             31 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 28 July. 
Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days, 29-31 
July. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 28 July, the solar wind speed 
was steady near its background levels. The total IMF (Bt) varied 
in the range 3-6 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) 
varied between -3 and +2 nT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to remain mainly at background level for the next two UT days 
(29-30 July). On UT day 31 July or thereabout the solar wind 
is expected to start increasing in response to an approaching 
recurrent negative polarity equatorial coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   12101000
      Cocos Island         1   11100100
      Darwin               2   11101101
      Townsville           3   12101111
      Learmonth            2   12201100
      Alice Springs        2   12101000
      Culgoora             2   12101000
      Gingin               2   12101000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           2   12111000
      Hobart               1   11111000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     1   10021000
      Casey                4   23211100
      Mawson              11   34322212

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1002 1122     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jul     5    Quiet
30 Jul     5    Quiet
31 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in 
the Australian region on UT day 28 July. Quiet to Unsettled levels 
were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic activity 
is expected to stay mostly at quiet levels for the next 2 UT 
days, 29-30 July. On UT day 31 July, conditions could reach Unsettled 
levels and at times even to Active levels due to the effects 
of the approaching recurrent equatorial coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 2 UT days, 29-30 July.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
28 Jul     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -4
Jul      -12
Aug      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
30 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
31 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near 
predicted monthly values across the Australian/NZ regions on 
UT day 28 July. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed 
over some sites. MUFs in the Australian/NZ regions are expected 
to stay mostly near the predicted monthly values for the next 
three UT days, 29 to 31 July.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: 310 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:    21100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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