[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 26 Jul 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 27 09:31:51 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jul 28 Jul 29 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 26 July.
Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days, 27-29
July. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 26 July, the solar wind speed
was near its background levels. The total IMF (Bt) varied in
the range 2-4 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied
between -2 and +3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
mainly at background level for the next three UT days (27-29
July), with mild enhancements possible due to small patchy coronal
holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 00000000
Cocos Island 0 00000010
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 1 11100001
Learmonth 0 00100010
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Culgoora 0 01000000
Gingin 0 00000010
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 0 10001000
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 1 11110010
Mawson 2 20000012
Davis 2 01110020
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jul 7 Quiet
28 Jul 7 Quiet
29 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in
the Australian region and in Antarctica on UT day 26 July. Global
geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at quiet levels
for the next 3 UT days, 27-29 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 UT days, 27-29 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jul -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -4
Jul -12
Aug -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jul -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near
predicted monthly values across the Australian/NZ regions on
UT day 26 July. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed over some
sites. MUFs in the Australian/NZ regions are expected to stay
mostly near the predicted monthly values for the next three UT
days, 27 to 29 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 38000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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