[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 26 Jul 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 27 09:31:51 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jul             28 Jul             29 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 26 July. 
Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days, 27-29 
July. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 26 July, the solar wind speed 
was near its background levels. The total IMF (Bt) varied in 
the range 2-4 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied 
between -2 and +3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain 
mainly at background level for the next three UT days (27-29 
July), with mild enhancements possible due to small patchy coronal 
holes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00000000
      Cocos Island         0   00000010
      Darwin               1   11000001
      Townsville           1   11100001
      Learmonth            0   00100010
      Alice Springs        0   00000000
      Culgoora             0   01000000
      Gingin               0   00000010
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           0   10001000
      Hobart               0   00000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                1   11110010
      Mawson               2   20000012
      Davis                2   01110020

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1000 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jul     7    Quiet
28 Jul     7    Quiet
29 Jul     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in 
the Australian region and in Antarctica on UT day 26 July. Global 
geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at quiet levels 
for the next 3 UT days, 27-29 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 3 UT days, 27-29 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Jul    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -4
Jul      -12
Aug      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values
28 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values
29 Jul    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near 
predicted monthly values across the Australian/NZ regions on 
UT day 26 July. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed over some 
sites. MUFs in the Australian/NZ regions are expected to stay 
mostly near the predicted monthly values for the next three UT 
days, 27 to 29 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: 361 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    38000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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