[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 18 Jul 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 19 09:31:26 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 18 July.
The solar disk visible from the Earthside is spotless. There
were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 18 July, the solar wind speed mostly varied
between 370 km/s and 400 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied mostly
between 1 nT and 6 nT, the north-south component of the IMF (Bz)
varied mostly in the range +4/-3 nT. The particle density varied
between 1 ppcc and 6 ppcc during most parts of this day. Very
low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days,19-21 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11011011
Cocos Island 1 11001100
Darwin 2 11001111
Townsville 3 11111111
Learmonth 2 11011111
Alice Springs 0 00001001
Culgoora 2 11011011
Gingin 1 10000011
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 0 00011000
Hobart 0 00010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00020000
Mawson 10 32212134
Davis 8 22322123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2321 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jul 5 Quiet
20 Jul 5 Quiet
21 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in
the Australian region on UT day 18 July. Global geomagnetic activity
may be expected to stay mostly at quiet levels for the next 3
UT days (19 to 21 July) with a small chance of some unsettled
conditions on UT day 19 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near
predicted monthly values with periods of mild to moderate enhancements
on UT day 19 July. MUFs are expected to stay mostly near the
predicted monthly values for the next three UT days (19 to 21
July).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jul -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -4
Jul -12
Aug -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jul -3 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jul -3 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jul -3 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near
predicted monthly values with periods of mild to moderate enhancements
across the Australian/NZ regions on UT day 17 July. Sporadic-E
and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. MUFs
in this region are expected to stay mostly near the predicted
monthly values for the next three UT days (19 to 21 July).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 434 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 81200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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