[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 16 Jul 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 17 09:31:31 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 16 July.
The solar disk visible from the Earthside is spotless. There
were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 16 July, the solar wind speed gradually decreased
from 430 to 370 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between
1 nT and 6 nT, the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied
mostly in the range +1.5/-3 nT. The particle density varied between
0.5 ppcc and 8 ppcc during most parts of this day. The solar
wind stream may show some strengthening on UT day 17 July due
to the influence of some scattered small negative polarity coronal
holes. Very low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT
days,17-19 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11112010
Cocos Island 1 00111000
Darwin 2 11112001
Townsville 3 11122011
Learmonth 3 11122100
Alice Springs 1 00012000
Culgoora 2 11012011
Gingin 2 11012110
Canberra 2 00212000
Launceston 5 11123120
Hobart 3 01113010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 00113010
Mawson 14 22332225
Davis 8 02441110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 3213 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jul 7 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jul 5 Quiet
19 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in
the Australian region on UT day 16 July. Global geomagnetic activity
may be expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on UT day
17 July and at quiet levels on UT days 18 and 19 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near
predicted monthly values with periods of mild to moderate enhancements
on UT day 16 July. MUFs are expected to stay mostly near the
predicted monthly values for the next three UT days (17 to 19
July).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jul -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun -4
Jul -12
Aug -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jul -2 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near
predicted monthly values with periods of mild to moderate enhancements
across the Australian/NZ regions on UT day 16 July. Sporadic-E
and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. MUFs
in this region are expected to stay mostly near the predicted
monthly values for the next three UT days (17 to 19 July).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 441 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 92600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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