[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 July 19 issued 2331 UT on 16 Jul 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 17 09:31:31 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JULY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jul             18 Jul             19 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 16 July. 
The solar disk visible from the Earthside is spotless. There 
were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. On UT day 16 July, the solar wind speed gradually decreased 
from 430 to 370 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 
1 nT and 6 nT, the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied 
mostly in the range +1.5/-3 nT. The particle density varied between 
0.5 ppcc and 8 ppcc during most parts of this day. The solar 
wind stream may show some strengthening on UT day 17 July due 
to the influence of some scattered small negative polarity coronal 
holes. Very low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT 
days,17-19 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11112010
      Cocos Island         1   00111000
      Darwin               2   11112001
      Townsville           3   11122011
      Learmonth            3   11122100
      Alice Springs        1   00012000
      Culgoora             2   11012011
      Gingin               2   11012110
      Canberra             2   00212000
      Launceston           5   11123120
      Hobart               3   01113010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     3   00113010
      Mawson              14   22332225
      Davis                8   02441110

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   3213 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jul     7    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jul     5    Quiet
19 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in 
the Australian region on UT day 16 July. Global geomagnetic activity 
may be expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on UT day 
17 July and at quiet levels on UT days 18 and 19 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near 
predicted monthly values with periods of mild to moderate enhancements 
on UT day 16 July. MUFs are expected to stay mostly near the 
predicted monthly values for the next three UT days (17 to 19 
July).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Jul    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      -4
Jul      -12
Aug      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jul    -2    Near predicted monthly values
18 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
19 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly near 
predicted monthly values with periods of mild to moderate enhancements 
across the Australian/NZ regions on UT day 16 July. Sporadic-E 
and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. MUFs 
in this region are expected to stay mostly near the predicted 
monthly values for the next three UT days (17 to 19 July).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 441 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    92600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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